Global Warming: Recent Data

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pulga
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by pulga » Fri Nov 10, 2017 1:54 pm

chownah wrote:
Fri Nov 10, 2017 1:17 pm


Maybe china is doing more than you know about....here is an article:...
That's great news, though I still contend that the technology will still continue to come from the U.S.. If automation ever does kick in in a big way, the U.S. will be in a position to drastically increase its production. As of now China has the upper-hand solely due to its lack of environmental regulations and low labor costs.

In the U.S. natural gas is replacing coal in its generation of electricity. (The downside of course is all the fracking that is necessary to supply the natural gas.) On a human level I can understand President Trump's dilemma. It is hard for him to see the suffering brought on by the decline in our domestic coal market, though he seems to have found a way to drastically increase our exports to those countries who now pride themselves for being members of the Paris Agreement. I tend to see a narrative far more nuanced than the one being fed to us by the social engineers from above.

pulga
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by pulga » Fri Nov 10, 2017 2:15 pm

chownah wrote:
Fri Nov 10, 2017 1:05 pm

I'm not sure why you brought this link. It is not about clean coal. ...
The link has more to do with the technology itself. As it is applied to coal, the PBS Newshour aired a story on it back in June 2017:


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Pseudobabble
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by Pseudobabble » Fri Nov 10, 2017 3:00 pm

chownah wrote:
Fri Nov 10, 2017 1:05 pm
hard to imagine that coal is going to be a hugely important industry in the future
Plentiful, cheap, energy store, easily converted to heat and power, without the need for advanced technology. Coal will be the first choice of any developing nation for a while to come.
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chownah
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by chownah » Fri Nov 10, 2017 3:16 pm

pulga wrote:
Fri Nov 10, 2017 2:15 pm
chownah wrote:
Fri Nov 10, 2017 1:05 pm

I'm not sure why you brought this link. It is not about clean coal. ...
The link has more to do with the technology itself. As it is applied to coal, the PBS Newshour aired a story on it back in June 2017:

[mediahttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Fxrs1a7fD0&t=283s/media]
As the video says, the cost will go up when the coal cleaning technology is added.
What the reality is right now is that wind and solar are already cheaper than coal in alot of places (but not everywhere yet) and are projected to keep getting cheaper as time goes on. I think that a resurgence in coal is mostly wishful thinking. Already people in the energy industry are saying that when battery prices come down a bit more there will be a watershed moment where suddenly solar and wind will just take over and things will change very quickly.....looks like china will be well positioned for this when it happens since they are putting this technology on the fast track.
chownah

pulga
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by pulga » Fri Nov 10, 2017 3:42 pm

chownah wrote:
Fri Nov 10, 2017 3:16 pm
Already people in the energy industry are saying that when battery prices come down a bit more there will be a watershed moment where suddenly solar and wind will just take over and things will change very quickly.....looks like china will be well positioned for this when it happens since they are putting this technology on the fast track.
If President Trump is successful in bringing back manufacturing to the U.S. -- though I concede that it probably won't bring back as many jobs as many hope -- it will be a win-win for both countries. For now I don't think that solar and wind are as viable as is being let on. How big a battery in feasible in trying to store the electricity from solar and wind to run whole cities continuously 24/7? That degree of technology may be a long ways off. Right now they're just focused on storing enough power to run an automobile, not an electrical power plant.

There are reasons why both solar and wind were being so heavily subsidized in the U.S.. It will be interesting to see the impact a reduction in subsidies is going to have on the industry in the U.S.. Up until and including last year a person could take a 30% tax credit on their investment in such alternative energy sources. Most of the money the U.S. was supposedly "investing" in alternative energy sources was in the form of such subsidies, most of which benefited wealthier Americans. Though I don't begrudge the fact, since they are the ones paying most of the taxes.

chownah
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by chownah » Sat Nov 11, 2017 2:49 am

pulga wrote:
Fri Nov 10, 2017 3:42 pm
For now I don't think that solar and wind are as viable as is being let on. How big a battery in feasible in trying to store the electricity from solar and wind to run whole cities continuously 24/7? That degree of technology may be a long ways off. Right now they're just focused on storing enough power to run an automobile, not an electrical power plant.
Seems you are not keeping up with what is happening already in the world today. Tesla is half way through the construction of a 100 megawatt battery system for a huge wind powered generating utility in australia.....the technology is not a long way off...it is here today and being implemented already:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-n ... f-complete
Also, tesla installed a PV system with battery storage in puerto rico for an entire hospital. That hospital gets all of its electricity needs satisfied from that installation.....there are other examples and if you search on the net I think you will find them.....a community in hawaii comes to mind....
chownah

pulga
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by pulga » Sat Nov 11, 2017 3:59 am

chownah wrote:
Sat Nov 11, 2017 2:49 am

Tesla is half way through the construction of a 100 megawatt battery system for a huge wind powered generating utility in australia.....the technology is not a long way off...it is here today and being implemented already:...
That is impressive. I did a quick google search and apparently it should be able to supply power to up to 100,000 homes. Let's hope that Tesla can pull it off. Still I think it is going to take some time to replace the fossil fuel generation of electricity with solar and wind. Generally implementation follows what is most cost effective. In the U.S. natural gas generation is replacing coal, not solely because it is cleaner but because it is less expensive. The question is when will alternative energy become cheaper than its more pollutive counterparts. It is a noble effort, and as I said before I have no qualms about subsidizing such technology so long as the money is spent wisely.

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Kim OHara
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by Kim OHara » Sat Nov 11, 2017 5:03 am

Good to see such a constructive conversation going on while I wasn't around - :thanks:

Can I just add that batteries are far from the only storage solution?
Pumped hydro - using excess solar/wind/tidal power to pump water from a low dam to a higher one, and using the hydro power when the sun sets and the wind drops - is a proven technology which is doing well. See http://energystorage.org/energy-storage ... ic-storage
Molten salt storage has been used by solar farms for some years. It's just one form of thermal energy storage - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermal_energy_storage

:reading:
Kim

chownah
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by chownah » Sat Nov 11, 2017 5:08 am

pulga wrote:
Sat Nov 11, 2017 3:59 am
The question is when will alternative energy become cheaper than its more pollutive counterparts.
Solar and wind are already the cheapest source of energy in many places and situations already. If you google something like 'power generation cheapest' or something similar I think you may be surprised at what you see. It is the intermitten nature of these sources which keep them from completely taking over but the advances in battery technology and the decrease in cost through mass production will soon bring the cost of battery storage to a level where fossil fuel plants will be clearly seen as obsolete and will be close even before they have run their life cycles. Estimates of how long this will take are often in the five to ten year range.....but really it just depends on how fast the cost of batteries drops....and every year it keeps dropping.....china sees this very well and is doing alot to spur research an investment in alernative energy at all levels.
chownah

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robertk
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by robertk » Sat Nov 11, 2017 5:19 am

chownah wrote:
Sat Nov 11, 2017 5:08 am
pulga wrote:
Sat Nov 11, 2017 3:59 am
The question is when will alternative energy become cheaper than its more pollutive counterparts.
Solar and wind are already the cheapest source of energy in many places and situations already. If you google something like 'power generation cheapest' or something similar I think you may be surprised at what you see. It is the intermitten nature of these sources which keep them from completely taking over but the advances in battery technology and the decrease in cost through mass production will soon bring the cost of battery storage to a level where fossil fuel plants will be clearly seen as obsolete and will be close even before they have run their life cycles. Estimates of how long this will take are often in the five to ten year range.....but really it just depends on how fast the cost of batteries drops....and every year it keeps dropping.....china sees this very well and is doing alot to spur research an investment in alernative energy at all levels.
chownah

I wonder why China is building so many coal stations over the next decade?
Chinese companies to build 700 coal plants in and outside China
1,600 coal plants are planned or under construction in 62 countries
Andrew Topf | Oct. 8, 2017, 4:35 PM

http://www.mining.com/chinese-companies ... ide-china/

chownah
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by chownah » Sat Nov 11, 2017 5:54 am

robertk wrote:
Sat Nov 11, 2017 5:19 am
I wonder why China is building so many coal stations over the next decade?
Chinese companies to build 700 coal plants in and outside China
1,600 coal plants are planned or under construction in 62 countries
Andrew Topf | Oct. 8, 2017, 4:35 PM

http://www.mining.com/chinese-companies ... ide-china/
There is a trend it seems:
Coal in 'freefall' as new power plants dive by two-thirds
https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... hina-india
In latest move, China halts over 100 coal power projects:
http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-china- ... KKBN151090
chownah

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robertk
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by robertk » Sat Nov 11, 2017 6:03 am

yes , those articles are quite old. The link I supplied gives the latest figures I believe.

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Kim OHara
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by Kim OHara » Sat Nov 11, 2017 6:58 am

robertk wrote:
Sat Nov 11, 2017 5:19 am
chownah wrote:
Sat Nov 11, 2017 5:08 am
pulga wrote:
Sat Nov 11, 2017 3:59 am
The question is when will alternative energy become cheaper than its more pollutive counterparts.
Solar and wind are already the cheapest source of energy in many places and situations already. If you google something like 'power generation cheapest' or something similar I think you may be surprised at what you see. It is the intermitten nature of these sources which keep them from completely taking over but the advances in battery technology and the decrease in cost through mass production will soon bring the cost of battery storage to a level where fossil fuel plants will be clearly seen as obsolete and will be close even before they have run their life cycles. Estimates of how long this will take are often in the five to ten year range.....but really it just depends on how fast the cost of batteries drops....and every year it keeps dropping.....china sees this very well and is doing alot to spur research an investment in alernative energy at all levels.
chownah

I wonder why China is building so many coal stations over the next decade?
Chinese companies to build 700 coal plants in and outside China
1,600 coal plants are planned or under construction in 62 countries
Andrew Topf | Oct. 8, 2017, 4:35 PM

http://www.mining.com/chinese-companies ... ide-china/
I suspect the answer to your question is complicated, Robert.
Firstly, I would like to see trend figures, not just current figures. How many coal plants were planned or under construction in these countries 5 years ago? ten years ago?
Secondly, I suspect that Chinese construction companies are undercutting the prices that anyone else can offer, either because the Chinese government is directly supporting 'new silk road' projects or because the slowdown in construction projects back home leaves them with underemployed skilled staff, or both.

:namaste:
Kim

chownah
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by chownah » Sat Nov 11, 2017 9:58 am

robertk wrote:
Sat Nov 11, 2017 6:03 am
yes , those articles are quite old. The link I supplied gives the latest figures I believe.
The latest figures given in your link do not disagree with what is given in the two I brought. Your link does not address whether coal power generation is expanding or not....it addresses the somewhat strawman arguements that coal is dead or that coal is a sunset industry. Your article also says:
Examples of China's domestic aversion to coal include:
•Two days ago Taiyuan, the capital of China’s northern province of Shanxi, which is known for its coal production, banned the sale, transport and use of most coal as it tries to cut air pollution
•In May Shanxi province decided to suspend or hold back the development of mines until 2020, which effectively will take out of the market about of 120 million tonnes of the fossil fuel.
•Also in May provincial authorities announced they will close 18 collieries and cut 17 million tonnes of coal capacity by the end of the year.
•In January Beijing announced it plans to shut down 800 million tonnes of outdated coal capacity by 2020.
You ask why chinese companies are building so much coal capacity....I think the answer is that it is profitable for them.
chownah

pulga
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by pulga » Sat Nov 11, 2017 12:18 pm

chownah wrote:
Sat Nov 11, 2017 5:08 am
pulga wrote:
Sat Nov 11, 2017 3:59 am
The question is when will alternative energy become cheaper than its more pollutive counterparts.
Solar and wind are already the cheapest source of energy in many places and situations already. ...
If the problem of storing the power can be solved, the next big challenge is capacity. How many wind turbines and solar panels would have to be built to replace the fossil fuel plants already in place? There are large swathes of the Western U.S. already covered (some would say littered) with wind turbines; to multiply these tenfold is probably what it would take to replace the conventional sources of electricity. I do think it is doable, however -- very unsightly but doable. The acceptance of hydroelectricity would lessen that amount, but it's almost as controversial as fossil fuels. But I suppose living on a cleaner planet with Native Americans and environmentalists complaining about dying salmon runs is a lot more palatable than the encroachment of climate change. With all its contaminated waste and the risk of catastrophic meltdowns, nuclear energy really out to be phased out as well.
chownah wrote:
Sat Nov 11, 2017 5:08 am
china sees this very well and is doing alot to spur research an investment in alernative energy at all levels
Thank God for that.

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