POMPEO is in Saudi Today: his interesting message

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Traveler8
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Re: POMPEO is in Saudi Today: his interesting message

Post by Traveler8 » Tue May 01, 2018 11:45 pm

DooDoot wrote:
Tue May 01, 2018 10:21 pm
This is false. The majority of Syrian people support the Syrian government. If this was not true, then Syria would have collapsed by now.
I have a hard time believing that majority of people support him in Kurdish and Sunni Arab areas.
Each time the Syrian govt liberates a city, such as Aleppo, the Syrian people return there to live.
Some are returning, and some others are running away. That's why you have millions of them in Turkey and other countries.

And this is how liberated Aleppo looks like:

Image
This is why the so-called "rebel groups" are mostly made up of an international brigade of mercenaries & psychopaths from around 40 countries.
Mostly they aren't, only ISIL, Nusra and their affiliates accepted large groups of foreigners. Even in Nusra foreigners are minority.
This is false. The majority of soldiers & volunteers in the Syrian army are Sunni. The conflict in Syria is not Sunnis vs Shia.
Then why wasn't Assad able to defend most Sunni Arab and Kurdish areas?

There probably are many Sunni soldiers fighting for him though. Because they got stuck living in the areas where non-Sunnis dominate. But wherever was even tiny enclave within the city with large Sunni majority, rebels were taking over. Just like non-Sunni enclaves remained loyal to him.
This is false. The Syrian conflict is by foreign forces, including the forces of the West & Israel.
Well, foreign forces created Syria in the first place. It was part of Sunni empires up until 20th century. Assad family gained control only in the 1960s.
America supports Saudi Wahhabism. To support America is to support Wahhabi extremism & Wahhabi terrorism. Al Qaeda fought for American agendas in Afghanistan, Kosovo, Libya, Iraq & Syria.
Al-Qaeda and ISIL proclaimed Saudis as unbelievers. And Saudi grand mufti called them enemies of Islam number one, dogs of hell. Unlike Iran and Hamas, Saudis never called some suicide bombers martyrs.

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Kamran
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Re: POMPEO is in Saudi Today: his interesting message

Post by Kamran » Wed May 02, 2018 1:17 am

The west just lacks the detailed knowledge and decades old relationships that Iran has carefully developed over decades....

While the Americans think "Kurds" the Iranians are thinking the"Barzanis", the soli emani clan, the YPG, PUK, PKK and of the myriad of competing factions that exists just within kurdish community.

That's why when the "Kurds" declared independence from Iraq, the Iranians were able to use another kurdish faction to directly take over the largest oilfield on Kurdistan.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reu ... SKBN1DE1UY

Americans have the bombs but they don't have the knowledge.

Knowledge is power
"Silence gives answers"

Jalal ad-Din Muhammad Rumi

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DooDoot
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Re: POMPEO is in Saudi Today: his interesting message

Post by DooDoot » Wed May 02, 2018 3:59 am

Traveler8 wrote:
Tue May 01, 2018 11:45 pm
I have a hard time believing that majority of people support him in Kurdish and Sunni Arab areas.
Sunni are 70% of Syrians. If Sunnis were against the Syrian govt, it would be overthrown; similar to how Hezbollah could overthrow the Lebanese govt. I already informed you factually that the majority of the Syrian Army & volunteers are Sunni. Please do not post blatant lies on a Buddhist forum.

As for Kurds, I read they are not Syrians; that Kurds are Iranian wanderers, who Syria provided refuge to from Turkish & other persecutions, similar to how Palestinians & Arabs provided refute to European Jews in the 1800s and early 1900s.

The Buddha taught a practising Buddhist shows gratitude towards the small gift or favour. From a Buddhist perspective, it is not virtuous for Kurds to create a "homeland" when they are not only not a majority but when they are also refugees given refuge; similar to how it was not virtuous for those Jews given refuge in Palestine during the 1800s & early 1900s to murder & depopulate the Palestinean villages.
Some are returning, and some others are running away. That's why you have millions of them in Turkey and other countries.
They ran away from war.
And this is how liberated Aleppo looks like:
That is the Aleppo looted & destroyed by foreign forces. Aleppo is improving. This is a Buddhist forum. Please try to give up cruelty, as the Buddha taught. You might need to know that the violence in the Jewish religion in the Old Testament, Torah & Talmud does not exist in Buddhism; which is possibly why so many evolved secular Jews practise Buddhism. In Buddhism, we practise universal :heart: compassion :heart: .

:smile:












Mostly they aren't, only ISIL, Nusra and their affiliates accepted large groups of foreigners. Even in Nusra foreigners are minority.
Nusra is Al Queda, who allegedly did 9/11 (although I personally do not believe Al Queda did 9/11). You are giving the impression you support Al Queda and disapprove of the Syrian govt cleansing Syria of Al Queda. I recall at least one prominent Israeli politician preferred ISIS to win in Syria.
Then why wasn't Assad able to defend most Sunni Arab and Kurdish areas?
This is false. Sunni areas such as East Ghouta were held hostage by terrorists. I have watched many videos of Sunni happy to be liberated in East Ghouta.


There probably are many Sunni soldiers fighting for him though. Because they got stuck living in the areas where non-Sunnis dominate. But wherever was even tiny enclave within the city with large Sunni majority, rebels were taking over. Just like non-Sunni enclaves remained loyal to him.
No. 70% of Syrians are Sunni.
Well, foreign forces created Syria in the first place. It was part of Sunni empires up until 20th century. Assad family gained control only in the 1960s.
Syria is the crossroads of the world. Unlike Jews who never had a homeland but wandered from Babylon (Chaldea) to Turkey to Egypt to Europe to Poland and everywhere, Syrians are mentioned in the Bible and have been ruled by many empires such as Babylonians, Greeks, Persians, Romans, Byzantines, Muslims, Ottomans, British, French, etc. But we remain the same. As for Assad Snr, he was part of a political party that protected Syria from USA & Muslim Brotherhood control. The Assads don't like Wahhabi Salafi.
Al-Qaeda and ISIL proclaimed Saudis as unbelievers. And Saudi grand mufti called them enemies of Islam number one, dogs of hell. Unlike Iran and Hamas, Saudis never called some suicide bombers martyrs.
Sorry but they share the same ideology, such as beheading people & forcing women to wear burka. Wikipedia says: "[False Wahhabi] Islam is the state religion of Saudi Arabia and its law requires that all citizens should be Muslims"; which is the same as ISIS and which is false Islam because True Islam allows non-Muslims. For hundreds of years Jews in particular lived under Islamic rule and prospered greatly. Where do you think the old Jews made all of that money? Jews made all of the old money in Islamic Persia, Egypt & Spain/Portugal. Saudi Arabia & Qatar bankrolled ISIS and Turkey bought the stolen oil. Where do you think ISIS got weapons from? From Allah? Al-Qaeda and ISIL are unrelated to Syria but are aliens with the same mentality as the American govt.




Iran
Iran is a great nation. Centuries of Persian culture. I already informed you how good Iran has been to Jews over thousands of years. I have two gay friends who love travelling to Iran. My sister has an Australia friend who travels to Iran for holidays each year.


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DooDoot
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Re: POMPEO is in Saudi Today: his interesting message

Post by DooDoot » Wed May 02, 2018 5:02 am

DooDoot wrote:
Wed May 02, 2018 3:59 am
As for Assad Snr, he was part of a political party that protected Syria from USA & Muslim Brotherhood control. The Assads don't like Wahhabi Salafi.
The Buddha strongly encouraged study & learning. This article by Robert F Kennedy Jr might help us understand the recent history of Syria & the role of Assad Snr:
Why the Arabs Don’t Want Us in Syria

They don’t hate ‘our freedoms.’ They hate that we’ve betrayed our ideals in their own countries—for oil.

By ROBERT F. KENNEDY, JR. February 22, 2016

At a White House meeting between the CIA’s director of plans, Frank Wisner, and John Foster Dulles, in September 1957, Eisenhower advised the agency, “We should do everything possible to stress the ‘holy war’ aspect,” according to a memo recorded by his staff secretary, Gen. Andrew J. Goodpaster.

The CIA began its active meddling in Syria in 1949—barely a year after the agency’s creation. Syrian patriots had declared war on the Nazis, expelled their Vichy French colonial rulers and crafted a fragile secularist democracy based on the American model. But in March 1949, Syria’s democratically elected president, Shukri-al-Quwatli, hesitated to approve the Trans-Arabian Pipeline, an American project intended to connect the oil fields of Saudi Arabia to the ports of Lebanon via Syria. In his book, Legacy of Ashes, CIA historian Tim Weiner recounts that in retaliation for Al-Quwatli’s lack of enthusiasm for the U.S. pipeline, the CIA engineered a coup replacing al-Quwatli with the CIA’s handpicked dictator, a convicted swindler named Husni al-Za’im. Al-Za’im barely had time to dissolve parliament and approve the American pipeline before his countrymen deposed him, four and a half months into his regime.

Flush from his Operation Ajax “success” in Iran, Stone arrived in Damascus in April 1957 with $3 million to arm and incite Islamic militants and to bribe Syrian military officers and politicians to overthrow al-Quwatli’s democratically elected secularist regime, according to Safe for Democracy: The Secret Wars of the CIA, by John Prados. Working with the Muslim Brotherhood and millions of dollars, Rocky Stone schemed to assassinate Syria’s chief of intelligence, the chief of its General Staff and the chief of the Communist Party, and to engineer “national conspiracies and various strong arm” provocations in Iraq, Lebanon and Jordan that could be blamed on the Syrian Ba’athists.

A parade of Iranian and Syrian dictators, including Bashar al-Assad and his father, have invoked the history of the CIA’s bloody coups as a pretext for their authoritarian rule, repressive tactics and their need for a strong Russian alliance. These stories are therefore well known to the people of Syria and Iran who naturally interpret talk of U.S. intervention in the context of that history





John Kerry: Arab Countries Willing To Pay US To Attack Syria

Kerry Tells Congress That Oil Sheiks Will Pay US for War to Unseat Assad

September 4, 2013

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retrofuturist
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Re: POMPEO is in Saudi Today: his interesting message

Post by retrofuturist » Wed May 02, 2018 11:22 am

Greetings DooDoot,
DooDoot wrote:
Tue May 01, 2018 10:03 pm
retrofuturist wrote:
Tue May 01, 2018 9:42 am
Peace is coming to Iran.
Like peace came to Iraq, Libya & Syria?
There will be peace there too.

Your opinion of Trump as an extension of the globalist cabal is incorrect, IMO. From incorrect assumption comes incorrect conclusion, IMO.

Rather, he is currently undoing their projects and the "rogue" regimes they propped up (incl. NK & the former Saudi regime). When people learn what the "Iran deal" was about, people are going to be disgusted... especially if they happen to be American taxpayers.

Metta,
Paul. :)
"Do not force others, including children, by any means whatsoever, to adopt your views, whether by authority, threat, money, propaganda, or even education." - Ven. Thich Nhat Hanh

"The uprooting of identity is seen by the noble ones as pleasurable; but this contradicts what the whole world sees." (Snp 3.12)

"One discerns wrong view as wrong view, and right view as right view. This is one's right view." (MN 117)

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Re: POMPEO is in Saudi Today: his interesting message

Post by DooDoot » Wed May 02, 2018 11:24 am

retrofuturist wrote:
Wed May 02, 2018 11:22 am
There will be peace there too.
I am not sure what you have been smoking Paul but are you aware of what happened to Libya, particularly the human cost? The place was wrecked & continues to be a basket case. Sure, it might be at peace when it is extinct.





Last edited by DooDoot on Wed May 02, 2018 11:45 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: POMPEO is in Saudi Today: his interesting message

Post by retrofuturist » Wed May 02, 2018 11:31 am

Greetings,

Call it that if you like DooDoot, but I believe it is not a natural state for people and countries to be at war. The bulk of wars and terrorist groups since about the 1980's have invariably been created and sustained by an evil cabal whose days are numbered.

If you remember, I called North Korea before anyone here, when members were fretting over nuclear warfare breaking out... and how's Korea doing? Maybe I might be right here too? Or not. Either way I have my reasons and a pretty good track record at knowing and even pre-empting what Trump will do & achieve. And specific to the Middle East, I reaffirm that the de-corrupted Saudi Arabia will have a strong role to play by maintaining "peace through strength".

:spy:

Metta,
Paul. :)
"Do not force others, including children, by any means whatsoever, to adopt your views, whether by authority, threat, money, propaganda, or even education." - Ven. Thich Nhat Hanh

"The uprooting of identity is seen by the noble ones as pleasurable; but this contradicts what the whole world sees." (Snp 3.12)

"One discerns wrong view as wrong view, and right view as right view. This is one's right view." (MN 117)

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Bundokji
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Re: POMPEO is in Saudi Today: his interesting message

Post by Bundokji » Wed May 02, 2018 12:00 pm

retrofuturist wrote:
Wed May 02, 2018 11:31 am
Greetings,

Call it that if you like DooDoot, but I believe it is not a natural state for people and countries to be at war. The bulk of wars and terrorist groups since about the 1980's have invariably been created and sustained by an evil cabal whose days are numbered.

If you remember, I called North Korea before anyone here, when members were fretting over nuclear warfare breaking out... and how's Korea doing? Maybe I might be right here too? Or not. Either way I have my reasons and a pretty good track record at knowing and even pre-empting what Trump will do & achieve. And specific to the Middle East, I reaffirm that the de-corrupted Saudi Arabia will have a strong role to play by maintaining "peace through strength".

:spy:

Metta,
Paul. :)
What if Trump's approach dealing with the North Korean crisis backfired, what would have happened?

For example, if you go to the casino and end up winning a lot of money, would that make your action skillful? Do not you think that validating an action based on the immediate consequence is incomplete and might lead to wrong conclusions?

In the daily interactions between human beings, don't we owe each other a duty of care? Don't we weigh up the consequences of our actions and put failure as a possibility?

If we admit that failure is always a possibility (which is what sane people do in my opinion) then before we take a decision, we envisage the possible impact of "getting it wrong" on other human beings. Otherwise, all reckless and risky behaviors become completely justified as an act of faith!

Even using animals to experiment with can have a moral dilemma, how about human beings?
And the Blessed One addressed the bhikkhus, saying: "Behold now, bhikkhus, I exhort you: All compounded things are subject to vanish. Strive with earnestness!"

This was the last word of the Tathagata.

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Sam Vara
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Re: POMPEO is in Saudi Today: his interesting message

Post by Sam Vara » Wed May 02, 2018 12:30 pm

Bundokji wrote:
Wed May 02, 2018 12:00 pm
What if Trump's approach dealing with the North Korean crisis backfired, what would have happened?

For example, if you go to the casino and end up winning a lot of money, would that make your action skillful? Do not you think that validating an action based on the immediate consequence is incomplete and might lead to wrong conclusions?

In the daily interactions between human beings, don't we owe each other a duty of care? Don't we weigh up the consequences of our actions and put failure as a possibility?

If we admit that failure is always a possibility (which is what sane people do in my opinion) then before we take a decision, we envisage the possible impact of "getting it wrong" on other human beings. Otherwise, all reckless and risky behaviors become completely justified as an act of faith!

Even using animals to experiment with can have a moral dilemma, how about human beings?
All of that may be true, but wouldn't it equally apply to any politician, soldier, or anyone who sets out to change the world for the better? For example, Obama's offering an olive branch to Iran might also have had devastating long-term consequences, and could thereby be seen as equally risky.

(I'm not saying that either is right or wrong; merely that all politicians lack hindsight, not just Trump...)

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Re: POMPEO is in Saudi Today: his interesting message

Post by Bundokji » Wed May 02, 2018 1:14 pm

Sam Vara wrote:
Wed May 02, 2018 12:30 pm
All of that may be true, but wouldn't it equally apply to any politician, soldier, or anyone who sets out to change the world for the better? For example, Obama's offering an olive branch to Iran might also have had devastating long-term consequences, and could thereby be seen as equally risky.

(I'm not saying that either is right or wrong; merely that all politicians lack hindsight, not just Trump...)
Human beings are equal when it comes to the fallibility of their knowledge, but it takes a stretch of imagination and a lot of twisting to equate all human actions based on that as you appear to be doing.

When we talk about "risk" we seem to be describing a sense/ feeling of "fear" or "dis-ease" towards a possibility that seems to us to be "unfavorable".

May i raise a question for your contemplation: How did the world seem to react towards the news of the nuclear deal with Iran in 2015? Did not you notice a sense of optimism at that time (with the exception of the Israeli prime)?

Now, contrast the above with the world's reaction during the escalation with North Korea and with Russia over Syria? Did not you notice more talking about a third world war?

The tools we invent to measure our subjective assessment of risk might be useful for our reflections:

https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/ ... apocalypse

Now, does equating the two above reactions based on the fact that all leaders lacking hindsight seem reasonable to you?
And the Blessed One addressed the bhikkhus, saying: "Behold now, bhikkhus, I exhort you: All compounded things are subject to vanish. Strive with earnestness!"

This was the last word of the Tathagata.

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Re: POMPEO is in Saudi Today: his interesting message

Post by lyndon taylor » Wed May 02, 2018 1:17 pm

retrofuturist wrote:
Wed May 02, 2018 11:31 am
Greetings,

Call it that if you like DooDoot, but I believe it is not a natural state for people and countries to be at war. The bulk of wars and terrorist groups since about the 1980's have invariably been created and sustained by an evil cabal whose days are numbered.

If you remember, I called North Korea before anyone here, when members were fretting over nuclear warfare breaking out... and how's Korea doing? Maybe I might be right here too? Or not. Either way I have my reasons and a pretty good track record at knowing and even pre-empting what Trump will do & achieve. And specific to the Middle East, I reaffirm that the de-corrupted Saudi Arabia will have a strong role to play by maintaining "peace through strength".

:spy:

Metta,
Paul. :)

You can't serve two masters, you have to choose either the Buddha or Mr. Trump, you seem to have made your choice.
18 years ago I made one of the most important decisions of my life and entered a local Cambodian Buddhist Temple as a temple boy and, for only 3 weeks, an actual Therevada Buddhist monk. I am not a scholar, great meditator, or authority on Buddhism, but Buddhism is something I love from the Bottom of my heart. It has taught me sobriety, morality, peace, and very importantly that my suffering is optional, and doesn't have to run my life. I hope to give back what little I can to the Buddhist community, sincerely former monk John

http://trickleupeconomictheory.blogspot.com/

Traveler8
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Re: POMPEO is in Saudi Today: his interesting message

Post by Traveler8 » Wed May 02, 2018 1:23 pm

DooDoot wrote:
Wed May 02, 2018 3:59 am
If Sunnis were against the Syrian govt, it would be overthrown; similar to how Hezbollah could overthrow the Lebanese govt. I already informed you factually that the majority of the Syrian Army & volunteers are Sunni. Please do not post blatant lies on a Buddhist forum.


Rebels did take over most Sunni areas, including enclaves in the capital city, some of them not far away from Presidential Palace. This leads me to believe that they mostly don't support Assad. And I have yet to see some credible data that would
convince me that they are actually supporting him. Accusing me of lying without proving anything doesn't help your case. You posted nothing to prove that I'm wrong, let alone proving that I had the intention of lying.

I'm not into partisanship, so my opinions are not in line with any kind of propaganda. I can agree with either side or none depending on the situation. Meanwhile, what you're writing is completely in line with Russian propaganda, not deviating in the slightest.

And I'm not even denying the possibility that large part of his army are Sunnis. They indeed were majority in the beginning, which is no wonder since the regime held firm control over the whole country. But they defected over time, and that's how rebels got stronger. So we can only speculate about how many of them are left, and who would they personally support
if they had a choice.

In many European colonies, native soldiers were also majority in the army. In some communist countries, in the first free elections it was shown that over 90% of people were against communism, yet the regimes were not overthrown for decades and people were serving in the army.
As for Kurds, I read they are not Syrians; that Kurds are Iranian wanderers, who Syria provided refuge to from Turkish & other persecutions, similar to how Palestinians & Arabs provided refute to European Jews in the 1800s and early 1900s.

The Buddha taught a practising Buddhist shows gratitude towards the small gift or favour. From a Buddhist perspective, it is not virtuous for Kurds to create a "homeland" when they are not only not a majority but when they are also refugees given refuge; similar to how it was not virtuous for those Jews given refuge in Palestine during the 1800s & early 1900s to murder & depopulate the Palestinean villages.
Now this is pure chauvinism. Funnily coming from the supporter of minority ruling caste without any notable history of their own and directed against founders of one of the greatest empires in Middle East. They established several dynasties before Turks even came Anatolia.

You probably never heard of Ayyubids and their founder Saladin that defeated Crusaders and established empire that ruled over the whole Syria and large parts of Arabia and Egypt. As well as dozens of dynasties established centuries before him. Kurds have longer list of states founded by them, than the list of notable persons from Assad family.

That's not to say that I support creation of Kurdish state.
That is the Aleppo looted & destroyed by foreign forces. Aleppo is improving. This is a Buddhist forum. Please try to give up cruelty, as the Buddha taught. You might need to know that the violence in the Jewish religion in the Old Testament, Torah & Talmud does not exist in Buddhism; which is possibly why so many evolved secular Jews practise Buddhism. In Buddhism, we practise universal :heart: compassion :heart: .

:smile:


I hope that you're just trolling here. I have compassion for all sides of the conflict and respect their ethnic and religious identity. It's you showing no compassion to people that are not in line with your agenda. You ignore the suffering of millions of people that were forced leave their home as well as most of the Aleppo being destroyed, while posting propaganda videos of people laughing in few quarters that were not destroyed in bombing just because of their ethno-religious makeup.

May you be well, shalom from lying Salafi Jew.

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Re: POMPEO is in Saudi Today: his interesting message

Post by Mr Man » Wed May 02, 2018 1:55 pm

Hi Paul
retrofuturist wrote:
Wed May 02, 2018 11:31 am
an evil cabal whose days are numbered.
Who are the "evil cabal"?
retrofuturist wrote:
Wed May 02, 2018 11:31 am
If you remember, I called North Korea before anyone here, when members were fretting over nuclear warfare breaking out... and how's Korea doing? Maybe I might be right here too?
What do you mean you called "North Korea before anyone here"? How were you right. I remember you mentioning that Trump did a pre-emptive strike using a secret weapon called Rods of God.
retrofuturist wrote:
Wed May 02, 2018 11:31 am
Either way I have my reasons and a pretty good track record at knowing and even pre-empting what Trump will do & achieve.
Pre-empting? What do you mean by that?

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Re: POMPEO is in Saudi Today: his interesting message

Post by Sam Vara » Wed May 02, 2018 2:08 pm

Bundokji wrote:
Wed May 02, 2018 1:14 pm
Human beings are equal when it comes to the fallibility of their knowledge, but it takes a stretch of imagination and a lot of twisting to equate all human actions based on that as you appear to be doing.
Humans are only equal in this respect in that all are prone to getting it wrong at least some of the time. But I don't think that all are equally fallible. Some have more knowledge, and reason better, than those who are poorly informed and can't make correct inferences. I'm not saying that all are equally likely to get it wrong. Clearly there are experts who get it right more frequently. I've no idea whether the experts advising Obama were any better informed than those advising Trump. It could be that the Iranians were taking advantage of that olive branch in order to develop and use nuclear weapons, and that Trump's harder line has averted that disaster. We don't know, do we?
When we talk about "risk" we seem to be describing a sense/ feeling of "fear" or "dis-ease" towards a possibility that seems to us to be "unfavorable".
I'm not. I'm talking about our best prediction as to the likelihood of harm occurring. That's different from the subjective feelings people might have about it. Famously, people are more scared of airline crashes than they are of other forms of violent death which are statistically far more likely to happen to them. The same holds true across a wide range of potential harms. And people in some cultures are fearful that they will become victims of sorcery. Their fears are a poor guide to potential outcomes.

This means that feelings of relief or optimism that the media report regarding olive branches, or feelings of gloom regarding tough-worded tweets, are of very little use in predicting whether a plan of action is going to work. There was a huge surge of optimism in some sections of rthe media over the so-called "Arab Spring", but feelings are not good predictors. The proof of the pudding is in the eating.

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Re: POMPEO is in Saudi Today: his interesting message

Post by Bundokji » Wed May 02, 2018 3:26 pm

Sam Vara wrote:
Wed May 02, 2018 2:08 pm
Bundokji wrote:
Wed May 02, 2018 1:14 pm
Human beings are equal when it comes to the fallibility of their knowledge, but it takes a stretch of imagination and a lot of twisting to equate all human actions based on that as you appear to be doing.
Humans are only equal in this respect in that all are prone to getting it wrong at least some of the time. But I don't think that all are equally fallible. Some have more knowledge, and reason better, than those who are poorly informed and can't make correct inferences. I'm not saying that all are equally likely to get it wrong. Clearly there are experts who get it right more frequently. I've no idea whether the experts advising Obama were any better informed than those advising Trump. It could be that the Iranians were taking advantage of that olive branch in order to develop and use nuclear weapons, and that Trump's harder line has averted that disaster. We don't know, do we?
When we talk about "risk" we seem to be describing a sense/ feeling of "fear" or "dis-ease" towards a possibility that seems to us to be "unfavorable".
I'm not. I'm talking about our best prediction as to the likelihood of harm occurring. That's different from the subjective feelings people might have about it. Famously, people are more scared of airline crashes than they are of other forms of violent death which are statistically far more likely to happen to them. The same holds true across a wide range of potential harms. And people in some cultures are fearful that they will become victims of sorcery. Their fears are a poor guide to potential outcomes.

This means that feelings of relief or optimism that the media report regarding olive branches, or feelings of gloom regarding tough-worded tweets, are of very little use in predicting whether a plan of action is going to work. There was a huge surge of optimism in some sections of rthe media over the so-called "Arab Spring", but feelings are not good predictors. The proof of the pudding is in the eating.
What I meant is that worldly knowledge is intrinsically fallible ( imperfect), and from the perspective that we have no choice but to rely on it, we are equal.

Our lack of knowledge that Iran misused or abused the olive branch does not equate extending an olive branch with threatening to illegally withdraw from the deal taking into consideration the existence of an independent body of experts who claim that Iran is fulfilling it's part of the deal.

Risk as an idea is not value free hence subjective. The examples you provided on irrational fears, while valid, can be a form of false reductionism. We don't only rely on odds and probabilities when we determine what is risky. Obviously, our feeling of lack of control is associated with what we consider risky. This is why people are less fearful of dying on their beds than by an accidents. This is why, those who happened to hold positions of power have bigger moral responsibility because they are in control and their decisions affect the majority of people who are not in control but have to deal with the consequences of the decisions of those in power.

Again, the potential consequences of extending and olive branch and failing should not be equated with the threatening of using force and confronting nations with nuclear capabilities hoping that they will be deterred. Why? Because the potential damage of each action if things go wrong are completely different.

One last thing. I would rather be wrong trying to defuse tension than being wrong adding fuel to a fire. This is what people with good intentions do in my opinion.
And the Blessed One addressed the bhikkhus, saying: "Behold now, bhikkhus, I exhort you: All compounded things are subject to vanish. Strive with earnestness!"

This was the last word of the Tathagata.

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