Page 1 of 8

Next 24 hours are super important (huge tensions regarding Syria)

Posted: Tue Apr 10, 2018 9:33 pm
by Circle5
Why is no topic here about the important events that are about to happen regarding Syria ? I sometimes come here to check the news. I think "if something super important is happening, it must be there in the dw news section". But since this news is not here, maybe I shouldn't rely on DW to get the news in the future.

So long story short: USA wants to strike Syria for an alleged chemical attack. This time, Russia has said that it will respond strongly to such an act and ever since Trump tweet 2 days ago, Russian and Assad planes have been patrolling the coast.

What can happen:

1) Worst case scenario: USA stricks Syria. Russia downs the US ship that launched the missilles. USA crushes Russian navy present in the area that is weaker than USA navy in the area. Russia might then respond with bombing of USA troops west of euphrate. After that, probably a US emergency meeting will be summoned and things will calm down.

2) Trump backs down and decides not to strike and things return to normal.

3) Middle ground solution: USA strikes Syria, Russia strikes the USA ship that lounched those missiles, UN emergency summit is summoned

There are 24 hours left until the decision will be made.

Personal prediction: USA finds a way to back down and not strike Syria while not looking like losers. Even China said they should do this and it's the first time they comment on Syrian war. They might call some independent commision to investigate the attack and slowly get out of this situation without losing face. Though there is a significant chance they will just do the attack and hope others don't react, but that's highly problematic since it has been made crystal clear that the US ship will be sunk if they do the attack.

Re: Next 24 hours are super important (huge tensions regarding Syria)

Posted: Tue Apr 10, 2018 9:37 pm
by Zom
Worst case scenario: USA stricks Syria.
Worst is nuclear war 8-)

Is it possible? Well, the probability is higher than during the last 30 years, I'd say so.

Re: Next 24 hours are super important (huge tensions regarding Syria)

Posted: Tue Apr 10, 2018 9:42 pm
by Circle5
Zom wrote:
Tue Apr 10, 2018 9:37 pm
Worst case scenario: USA stricks Syria.
Worst is nuclear war 8-)

Is it possible? Well, the probability is higher than during the last 30 years, I'd say so.
It actually is possible. And it is strange how in these peaceful times we are statistically closer to nuclear weapons use than during the cold war. There is at least a 0.1% chance that a nuke might get used. In case things degenerate too much, a tactical nuke might be used inside Syria. But nothing bigger than that can happen. Really worst case scenario in this situation is a tactical nuke being used somewhere in syria.

Re: Next 24 hours are super important (huge tensions regarding Syria)

Posted: Tue Apr 10, 2018 9:47 pm
by JamesTheGiant
How could Russia sink a submarine? The Ohio class SSGN subs have 144 Tomahawk cruise missiles each.
Plus there are hundreds of US special forces in Syria already.
Plus Israel has been actively bombing in Syria for a long time.
This is panic-news. Relax, it's all going to be okay. (Except for the Syrians.)

Re: Next 24 hours are super important (huge tensions regarding Syria)

Posted: Tue Apr 10, 2018 9:58 pm
by SarathW
This is panic-news. Relax
Thank you, James.
But wolf might come one day.

Re: Next 24 hours are super important (huge tensions regarding Syria)

Posted: Tue Apr 10, 2018 10:16 pm
by DNS
Circle5 wrote:
Tue Apr 10, 2018 9:33 pm
Why is no topic here about the important events that are about to happen regarding Syria ? I sometimes come here to check the news. I think "if something super important is happening, it must be there in the dw news section". But since this news is not here, maybe I shouldn't rely on DW to get the news in the future.
You're right, DW is the place to go for news; it's just that you went to the wrong DW.
http://www.dw.com/

:tongue:

Re: Next 24 hours are super important (huge tensions regarding Syria)

Posted: Tue Apr 10, 2018 10:37 pm
by paul
The UK and France are also involved in this punitive action. Just like people, from time to time it’s necessary to awaken lesser global states such as Russia and Syria with an action that asserts the true reality.

“The lion, bhikkhus, king of the beasts, in the evening emerges from his lair. Having emerged, he stretches himself, surveys the four quarters all around, roars his lion-roar thrice, and then leaves for his hunting-ground.
Bhikkhus, when the animals and creatures hear the roar of the lion, the king of the beasts, they, for the most part, are struck with fear, urgency and trembling.
Those that live in holes, enter their holes; the water-dwellers head into the waters; the forest- dwellers, seek the forests; winged birds resort to the skies.” —MN 11

Re: Next 24 hours are super important (huge tensions regarding Syria)

Posted: Tue Apr 10, 2018 10:41 pm
by Mkoll
DNS wrote:
Tue Apr 10, 2018 10:16 pm
Circle5 wrote:
Tue Apr 10, 2018 9:33 pm
Why is no topic here about the important events that are about to happen regarding Syria ? I sometimes come here to check the news. I think "if something super important is happening, it must be there in the dw news section". But since this news is not here, maybe I shouldn't rely on DW to get the news in the future.
You're right, DW is the place to go for news; it's just that you went to the wrong DW.
http://www.dw.com/

:tongue:
Thanks for that link. I had not heard of that news organization before.

Regarding Syria, I think it is very unlikely Russia would directly attack the US navy. It's in neither country's interest, nor the world's for that matter, to go to war.

Re: Next 24 hours are super important (huge tensions regarding Syria)

Posted: Tue Apr 10, 2018 10:56 pm
by Circle5
DNS wrote:
Tue Apr 10, 2018 10:16 pm
Circle5 wrote:
Tue Apr 10, 2018 9:33 pm
Why is no topic here about the important events that are about to happen regarding Syria ? I sometimes come here to check the news. I think "if something super important is happening, it must be there in the dw news section". But since this news is not here, maybe I shouldn't rely on DW to get the news in the future.
You're right, DW is the place to go for news; it's just that you went to the wrong DW.
http://www.dw.com/

:tongue:
Lol :D

Regarding Syria, I think it is very unlikely Russia would directly attack the US navy. It's in neither country's interest, nor the world's for that matter, to go to war.
True. Nobody wants to start anything big because of syria. It's not in anybody interest. But it's just that there is a, let's say, "bigger than usual" probability of things escalating out of control. Nobody wants this to happen, that's why I made the prediction that US will back down from the strike.

Even though nobody wants a situation, things might nevertheless lead there because of the "face" game that has to be maintained between countries. You can't say somemthing and then do nothing otherwise you lose all credibility. That's just how the diplomatic game works. It's called the escalation game and you can get caught up in this escalation ladder and have no possibility to back down even if everybody wants that. It is because of these conditions that this current situation is more explosive than usual and has a chance of things ending up bad.

Re: Next 24 hours are super important (huge tensions regarding Syria)

Posted: Wed Apr 11, 2018 12:22 am
by Zom
Regarding Syria, I think it is very unlikely Russia would directly attack the US navy. It's in neither country's interest, nor the world's for that matter, to go to war.
Except there's one little but very important nuance to consider - that is - Putin's sanity. After 18 years of ultimate power he is a bit... well... doesn't really see things according to reality 8-)

Re: Next 24 hours are super important (huge tensions regarding Syria)

Posted: Wed Apr 11, 2018 12:30 am
by denise
wish the normal "everybody" human beings could have a vote on the wars .....they vote on singing contests and buy goods on line....how about a "would you like a nice world war with your day....or perhaps tomorrow?" vote.....hmmm?

Re: Next 24 hours are super important (huge tensions regarding Syria)

Posted: Wed Apr 11, 2018 1:53 am
by Mkoll
Zom wrote:
Wed Apr 11, 2018 12:22 am
Regarding Syria, I think it is very unlikely Russia would directly attack the US navy. It's in neither country's interest, nor the world's for that matter, to go to war.
Except there's one little but very important nuance to consider - that is - Putin's sanity. After 18 years of ultimate power he is a bit... well... doesn't really see things according to reality 8-)
Here's to the better angels of his nature winning out in the end. :toast:

Re: Next 24 hours are super important (huge tensions regarding Syria)

Posted: Wed Apr 11, 2018 3:19 am
by chownah
At times like this are people glad that trump is commander in chief of the american military forces (including the nuclear option)?

Is trump a calm hand who can smooth things and help keep everyone calm on both sides of the equation?

Is bolton's appointment to trump's administration something that helps to smooth things and help keep everyone calm on both sides of the equation?

Is the presence of someone who acts impulsively and whose actions are erratic and unexpected going to help avoid war?

Hail to the chief.
chownah

Re: Next 24 hours are super important (huge tensions regarding Syria)

Posted: Wed Apr 11, 2018 4:38 am
by retrofuturist
Greetings Chownah,
chownah wrote:
Wed Apr 11, 2018 3:19 am
At times like this are people glad that trump is commander in chief of the american military forces (including the nuclear option)?
Very much so. For someone who has only been the President of the United States for less than 15 months, he has achieved incredible outcomes. What's his track record so far?...

- No new wars started

- Existing wars which were unnecessarily started or prolonged by past administrations are being won or de-escalated, especially those pertaining to ISIS who have been virtually obliterated by Mad Dog Maddis & co.

- Working towards the very real likelihood of Denuclearisation of North Korea!

... and they're just the overt benefits achieved, nevermind the covert ones that we don't yet have full visibility into (e.g. Saudi Arabia).

Were it anyone else who had brokered, overseen or achieved these remarkable feats in such a short period of time, they would be met with near unanimous praise and adulation. Unfortunately, the media are not willing to openly report such things, and instead continue to drone on with their doom-mongering.

( And some people still believe he is stupid! :rofl: The cognitive dissonance must hurt. )

Given his actual track record, I think we're all blessed that he is at the helm, rather than the alternative - a proven war-monger like Hillary Clinton.

Metta,
Paul. :)

Re: Next 24 hours are super important (huge tensions regarding Syria)

Posted: Wed Apr 11, 2018 5:24 am
by SarathW
Given his actual track record, I think we're all blessed that he is at the helm, rather than the alternative - a proven war-monger like Hillary Clinton.
I pray that you are right.
:coffee: