Trump - One Year

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No_Mind
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Trump - One Year

Post by No_Mind » Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:56 am

It is 20th Jan in some parts of the world. Time to begin a discussion.

On Thursday, the Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 41,000 to a seasonally adjusted 220,000 for the week ended Jan. 13, the lowest level since February 1973, 45 years ago.

On Obama's last full day in office Dow was 19,732 and today it is 26,000 or 31% rise.

Obama let North Korea continue nuclear weapons program .. with Trump around Kim is fearful (I know this will be debated but Kim is not sleeping restfully at night like he was during Obama years). Under Obama's watch the Syrian mess happened.

Hmm DACA and shithole countries .. so on and so forth .. but one could say while liberals worry about the paint job, Trump is fixing the engine.

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Re: Trump - One Year

Post by No_Mind » Fri Jan 19, 2018 12:06 pm

As an Indian, I am not unhappy ..
  • Bannon read Bhagavad Gita and loves Hinduism. Point being, a Gita appreciating Christian is not unwelcome in corridors of power in Washington .. good thing.
  • In a relief for Indian techies, US authorities on Jan 8th said that the Trump administration is not considering any proposal that would force H-1B visa holders to leave the country.
  • Trump has made it clear he would prefer educated immigrants over uneducated ones.
  • Trump dislikes Muslims and has stopped aid to Pakistan - a wretched nation which sends terrorists to India.
  • If we go to war/skirmish with Pakistan or China, Trump would support us. The good thing about this guy is that he is not politically correct or diplomatic. He takes sides and lets it be known in advance which side he will be taking.
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Sam Vara
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Re: Trump - One Year

Post by Sam Vara » Fri Jan 19, 2018 12:47 pm

I tend to agree with most of your points. Trump arouses very strong passions among some people, and I can certainly say that he is probably a poor role model for Buddhists in many ways. But he is a game-changer. He is either a coarse blunderer who has had literally incredible luck, or a very shrewd and original politician who is tearing up the rule book. I think he is the latter.

Everyone concentrates upon his twitter output, but it seems that he spends five minutes per day tweeting, the media go into a day-long frenzy of outrage, and meanwhile he gets on with the job. He might be the first US President in a long time who is driving the news, rather than the news driving him.

I would go further than you regarding Korea. The two countries are now cooperating (re-established communication, common flag for the Olympics, etc.) more than they did in the past. But the media were saying three weeks ago that he was edging the world towards nuclear war.

Because he is such an enigma, I find that people's reactions to him are more predictable and more interesting than what he actually does.

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Re: Trump - One Year

Post by No_Mind » Fri Jan 19, 2018 1:06 pm

Sam Vara wrote:
Fri Jan 19, 2018 12:47 pm
He is either a coarse blunderer who has had literally incredible luck, or a very shrewd and original politician who is tearing up the rule book. I think he is the latter.
I think he was the former till General Kelly took over as Chief of Staff and the latter since then.

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Sam Vara
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Re: Trump - One Year

Post by Sam Vara » Fri Jan 19, 2018 1:20 pm

No_Mind wrote:
Fri Jan 19, 2018 1:06 pm
Sam Vara wrote:
Fri Jan 19, 2018 12:47 pm
He is either a coarse blunderer who has had literally incredible luck, or a very shrewd and original politician who is tearing up the rule book. I think he is the latter.
I think he was the former till General Kelly took over as Chief of Staff and the latter since then.

:namaste:
I partly agree. Kelly had a massive impact, yet Trump still made huge amounts of money and got to the White House. Some of the campaigning seems to have been outstandingly intelligent, so the man is not without talent!

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Re: Trump - One Year

Post by Bundokji » Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:07 pm

I think the economic results you mentioned cannot be completely attributed to Trump. When Obama took office, the American economy was in a very bad shape due to the GFC, so it can be argued that Obama who saved the ship and Trump is taking the credit as the fruits of Obama's policies started to materialize.

The rise in the share market is not necessarily a good sign of a healthy economy. The markets can be very irrational and i admit that Trump's image as a Business man and his pro-rich and corporations policies caused optimism in the market, but this could be another bubble in the making and the consequences in the future remain to be seen. Keep in mind that the money made in the share market is not due to real economic activity but the law of supply and demand of intangible things called shares!

It is too early to know how his foreign policy will turn out to be and there are two sides to each story. North Korea seem to have intensified its missiles and nuclear programs during the last year. Also the latest flirting with South Korea and the participation in the upcoming Olympics maybe a smart and tacticle attempt from the north to create a rift between the US and its allies especially South Korea.

The situation in the Middle East became much more unpredictable during last year. Saudi Arabia (a shitty country IMO) is emboldened and prepared to take a major role as a superpower in the region. Potential confrontation with Turkey is on its way as the US administration seem to be supporting Kurd in the north of Syria which is seen as an existential threat to Turkey. Also there are rumors that the US will be sending more US troops to the north of Syria which will open the possibility of direct confrontation with Russia.

Needless to say that his decision to move the US embassy to Jerusalem damaged the US image as a neutral mediator between the Palestinian Authority and the Jewish state. Hezbollah emerged from the conflict from Syria much stronger and Iran is winning almost every proxy battle in the region (Yemen, Lebanon, Qatar). Also the EU is getting more involved to fill the vacuum created by Trump's policies and play a more active role in the Middle East which might hurt the US interest in the region long term.

To sum up, it is too early to tell in my opinion.
And the Blessed One addressed the bhikkhus, saying: "Behold now, bhikkhus, I exhort you: All compounded things are subject to vanish. Strive with earnestness!"

This was the last word of the Tathagata.

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Re: Trump - One Year

Post by Justsit » Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:44 pm

It's interesting to see how Trump appears to non-Americans. Some think he is doing a great job.

The view on the ground here is a bit different.
Overall, the most radical change I've seen in the past year is the deepening of the split between Trump supporters and those who do not support his policy goals and methods. This country is being torn right down the middle. The Christian Evangelical agenda is being pushed very hard (thanks, Pence), which is extremely disruptive and has led to a large amount of legislation being proposed to restrict civil rights. Health care costs are soaring and some health care programs for children (among others) eliminated. The wealthy are profiting at an accelerated rate while programs to help the poor are losing funding and the middle class is still losing ground as the gap between rich and poor widens.

Perhaps from afar the economic benefits seem positive, but they are coming at great cost to the social structure. The picture from this side is grim. I often wonder what news makes the headlines overseas and what might be omitted. Of course, with the internet many news sources are available, but they don't always present the whole picture.

"Trump supporters maintain his tough talk and social media use allow him to connect directly with his supporters.

But this premise is flawed - Trump was elected to represent all 300+ million Americans. All of us. That includes those who are black, brown, gay, Muslim and transgender.

One cannot aim to please white, middle-class men at the expense of the rest of the American population and successfully govern our country.

Our diversity is our strength and our strength in America is our diversity. Does Mr Trump realise this?"
-From the BBC article cited below

Abraham Lincoln, addressing the issue of slavery, noted, "A house divided against itself cannot stand." I think that's true. It remains to be seen if the American house can withstand the division we're experiencing now.

https://www.npr.org/2018/01/18/57863991 ... -a-failure
http://thehill.com/homenews/administrat ... any-modern
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-42692707 As close to an unbiased, non-US news source as I can find.

ETA Some here might be interested to know more about the background of Mr. Trump's style of governing.
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/06 ... lationship

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Re: Trump - One Year

Post by No_Mind » Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:54 pm

Bundokji wrote:
Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:07 pm
Keep in mind that the money made in the share market is not due to real economic activity but the law of supply and demand of intangible things called shares!
Off topic but shares are tangible. If I buy 20 shares of Bundokji PLC then in my Balance Sheet it will be shown on Asset side under Investment.

We are not discussing the money made in share market but share prices as an indicator of economic well being. Usually rising share prices indicate fiscal deficit that is under control, government spending that is under control, and other positive macro economic indicators.
Apple will pay $38 billion in one-time tax payments on its overseas cash.

Between the spending plan, hiring 20,000 people, tax payments and business with U.S.-based suppliers, Apple on Wednesday estimated it would spend $350 billion in the United States over the next five years.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-appl ... KBN1F62FJ
Surely credit for this goes to Trump

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Justsit
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Re: Trump - One Year

Post by Justsit » Fri Jan 19, 2018 3:10 pm

No_Mind wrote:
Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:54 pm

We are not discussing the money made in share market but share prices as an indicator of economic well being. Usually rising share prices indicate fiscal deficit that is under control, government spending that is under control, and other positive macro economic indicators.
How'd that work for us in 2008? :toilet:

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Re: Trump - One Year

Post by No_Mind » Fri Jan 19, 2018 3:21 pm

Justsit wrote:
Fri Jan 19, 2018 3:10 pm
No_Mind wrote:
Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:54 pm

We are not discussing the money made in share market but share prices as an indicator of economic well being. Usually rising share prices indicate fiscal deficit that is under control, government spending that is under control, and other positive macro economic indicators.
How'd that work for us in 2008? :toilet:
I was putting forth conventional wisdom. Does not mean a bubble is not lurking there unknown.

This appears to be a world leader at peak of mental and physical health .. but who knows he may have a brain aneurysm tomorrow. But as long as we are sticking to known facts Putin is healthy and strong.

Image

For last 3 years I have been hearing about Dotcom bubble 2.0 bursting but share prices keep going higher and higher in tech companies.

Anyway we are discussing Trump's first year in office not possible bubbles in stock markets.

:focus:

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Re: Trump - One Year

Post by Bundokji » Fri Jan 19, 2018 4:12 pm

No_Mind wrote:
Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:54 pm
Off topic but shares are tangible. If I buy 20 shares of Bundokji PLC then in my Balance Sheet it will be shown on Asset side under Investment.

We are not discussing the money made in share market but share prices as an indicator of economic well being. Usually rising share prices indicate fiscal deficit that is under control, government spending that is under control, and other positive macro economic indicators.
:namaste:
The point i was trying to make is that share prices are not an indicator of economic well-being and that humanity does not seem to learn from past mistakes. For example, you mentioned that share prices indicate fiscal deficit is under control, but if you look at the actual numbers of the US Federal Deficit, you would see that 2017 had higher deficit than the previous three years and that the deficit started to decline since 2013 as the US economy started to recover under Obama.

https://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/us_deficit

Republicans in general and Trump in particular believe in less taxes and regulations to allow the so-called "market beast" to unleash! They seem to be ideologues more than responding to actual market conditions. Usually, when the market is recovering naturally, you don't implement polices that turns the natural healthy growth into hyper-inflation which usually ends up in an economic bubble waiting to burst (especially when the market value far exceeds book value, and in that sense, i described shares as intangible assets)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... et-deficit

By the way, i spent years of my life working as a day trader in the share market, and i know with good deal of certainty that markets are extremely irrational especially in the short term.
And the Blessed One addressed the bhikkhus, saying: "Behold now, bhikkhus, I exhort you: All compounded things are subject to vanish. Strive with earnestness!"

This was the last word of the Tathagata.

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Re: Trump - One Year

Post by No_Mind » Fri Jan 19, 2018 4:35 pm

Bundokji wrote:
Fri Jan 19, 2018 4:12 pm
The point i was trying to make is that share prices are not an indicator of economic well-being and that humanity does not seem to learn from past mistakes. For example, you mentioned that share prices indicate fiscal deficit is under control, but if you look at the actual numbers of the US Federal Deficit, you would see that 2017 had higher deficit than the previous three years and that the deficit started to decline since 2013 as the US economy started to recover under Obama.

https://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/us_deficit

Republicans in general and Trump in particular believe in less taxes and regulations to allow the so-called "market beast" to unleash! They seem to be ideologues more than responding to actual market conditions. Usually, when the market is recovering naturally, you don't implement polices that turns the natural healthy growth into hyper-inflation which usually ends up in an economic bubble waiting to burst (especially when the market value far exceeds book value, and in that sense, i described shares as intangible assets
Not to pick an argument but

Deficit as percent of GDP is just fine about 3.8% of GDP https://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/federal ... ercent_gdp

It had begun to rise during Obama's last year in office. We do not have all facts nor the time to analyze all the facts if we had them ..

US is going to grow at 2% - 2.5% so markets must think 3.8% deficit is sustainable and that the deficit is being incurred on good expenditure (defence, infrastructure ..)

I agree markets are irrational in short term .. as in the Bitcoin surge we saw .. but 1 year bull market is not short term. But yes it is due for a correction of 8-10%.

Words like market value and book value have become old fashioned to some extent .. Facebook has a 7% slice of relatively unflexing $500 billion global ad spend. But its share price has risen from $30 to $190 in past 5 years. No reason why it should rise. Unlike telecom companies it does not own spectrum or have paying customers. It has no book value since all it owns are few server farms. But its market value is 3.5 X that of GE which has thousands of patents and few dozen factories across the world.

Are you then saying Facebook's shares are 99% intangible?
Maybe but may not be .. we remember this esteemed economist and have heard his dire warnings from time to time.

Image

Image



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Re: Trump - One Year

Post by Bundokji » Fri Jan 19, 2018 4:53 pm

No_Mind wrote:
Fri Jan 19, 2018 4:35 pm
Words like market value and book value have become old fashioned to some extent .. Facebook has a 7% slice of relatively unflexing $500 billion global ad spend. But its share price has risen from $30 to $190 in past 5 years. No reason why it should rise. Unlike telecom companies it does not own spectrum or have paying customers. It has no book value since all it owns are few server farms. But its market value is 3.5 X that of GE which has thousands of patents and few dozen factories across the world.
I am indeed a very old fashioned guy and due to everything you explained above, i don't consider shares to be tangible asset. If i am in charge, i would bring humanity back to the barter system :tongue:

Anyway, sorry to deviate away from the main topic

:focus:
And the Blessed One addressed the bhikkhus, saying: "Behold now, bhikkhus, I exhort you: All compounded things are subject to vanish. Strive with earnestness!"

This was the last word of the Tathagata.

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Re: Trump - One Year

Post by robertk » Fri Jan 19, 2018 5:48 pm

Because he is such an enigma, I find that people's reactions to him are more predictable and more interesting than what he actually does.
image.jpeg
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Re: Trump - One Year

Post by Sam Vara » Fri Jan 19, 2018 5:54 pm

robertk wrote:
Fri Jan 19, 2018 5:48 pm
....
:rofl: That's excellent!

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Re: Trump - One Year

Post by lyndon taylor » Fri Jan 19, 2018 6:57 pm

Seems a lot of you have no idea about Trumps draconian laws that are adversely effecting me and those around me, this has been a terrible year for democracy.
18 years ago I made one of the most important decisions of my life and entered a local Cambodian Buddhist Temple as a temple boy and, for only 3 weeks, an actual Therevada Buddhist monk. I am not a scholar, great meditator, or authority on Buddhism, but Buddhism is something I love from the Bottom of my heart. It has taught me sobriety, morality, peace, and very importantly that my suffering is optional, and doesn't have to run my life. I hope to give back what little I can to the Buddhist community, sincerely former monk John

http://trickleupeconomictheory.blogspot.com/

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Re: Trump - One Year

Post by chownah » Sat Jan 20, 2018 3:33 am

Sam Vara wrote:
Fri Jan 19, 2018 5:54 pm
robertk wrote:
Fri Jan 19, 2018 5:48 pm
....
:rofl: That's excellent!
That is funny.......but......does it give a fair depiction of how the media has handled the question of trumps sanity?......or does it unfairly depict the media and add fuel to trumps ploy to trust no one but him? I haven't seen any media news on trumps sanity which sounded hysterical. What I have seen is just a pretty bland discussion of the issue. Is this cartoon just more "fake news" being spread around by propogandists wanting to make people ignore all news except for trump news?....and speaking of trump news, how much of that is fake and how much is out and out lies?...how much of it is propaganda where the truth is irrelevant and accruing power is the one and only purpose?
chownah

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Re: Trump - One Year

Post by Sam Vara » Sat Jan 20, 2018 10:51 am

chownah wrote:
Sat Jan 20, 2018 3:33 am
Sam Vara wrote:
Fri Jan 19, 2018 5:54 pm
robertk wrote:
Fri Jan 19, 2018 5:48 pm
....
:rofl: That's excellent!
That is funny.......but......does it give a fair depiction of how the media has handled the question of trumps sanity?......or does it unfairly depict the media and add fuel to trumps ploy to trust no one but him? I haven't seen any media news on trumps sanity which sounded hysterical. What I have seen is just a pretty bland discussion of the issue. Is this cartoon just more "fake news" being spread around by propogandists wanting to make people ignore all news except for trump news?....and speaking of trump news, how much of that is fake and how much is out and out lies?...how much of it is propaganda where the truth is irrelevant and accruing power is the one and only purpose?
chownah
No, it doesn't give a fair depiction, and I would guess that it's not supposed to. It's just making a wry comment about media preoccupations. It depends of course on what is meant by key terms such as "sanity", hysterical", and "news", etc., but I thought that the discussion of Trumps mental health evidenced here
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... ychiatrist

was about as ridiculous as anything Trump himself has ever tweeted or been reported as saying. There are difficulties in the general news-print and internet-reading public finding out what the truth is, which is why I think that Trump is reacting to an emerging culture of mass communication in an interesting and often intelligent manner. When whatever he does is labelled as the ravings of a racist madman, then he may as well go ahead and give the media something to tweet about while he gets on with the job.

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Re: Trump - One Year

Post by chownah » Sun Jan 21, 2018 2:10 am

Sam Vara wrote:
Sat Jan 20, 2018 10:51 am
chownah wrote:
Sat Jan 20, 2018 3:33 am
Sam Vara wrote:
Fri Jan 19, 2018 5:54 pm


:rofl: That's excellent!
That is funny.......but......does it give a fair depiction of how the media has handled the question of trumps sanity?......or does it unfairly depict the media and add fuel to trumps ploy to trust no one but him? I haven't seen any media news on trumps sanity which sounded hysterical. What I have seen is just a pretty bland discussion of the issue. Is this cartoon just more "fake news" being spread around by propogandists wanting to make people ignore all news except for trump news?....and speaking of trump news, how much of that is fake and how much is out and out lies?...how much of it is propaganda where the truth is irrelevant and accruing power is the one and only purpose?
chownah
No, it doesn't give a fair depiction, and I would guess that it's not supposed to. It's just making a wry comment about media preoccupations. It depends of course on what is meant by key terms such as "sanity", hysterical", and "news", etc., but I thought that the discussion of Trumps mental health evidenced here
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... ychiatrist

was about as ridiculous as anything Trump himself has ever tweeted or been reported as saying. There are difficulties in the general news-print and internet-reading public finding out what the truth is, which is why I think that Trump is reacting to an emerging culture of mass communication in an interesting and often intelligent manner. When whatever he does is labelled as the ravings of a racist madman, then he may as well go ahead and give the media something to tweet about while he gets on with the job.
I agree that this image was not meant to give a fair depiction. I think it was meant to bolster the idea that the media can not be trusted and additionally I think it was meant to convince people that to think that trump's sanity should be considered is a crazy thing that crazy people do.

Do you think that considering trump's sanity is a crazy thing to do?
chownah

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Re: Trump - One Year

Post by Sam Vara » Sun Jan 21, 2018 8:27 am

chownah wrote:
Sun Jan 21, 2018 2:10 am
I agree that this image was not meant to give a fair depiction. I think it was meant to bolster the idea that the media can not be trusted and additionally I think it was meant to convince people that to think that trump's sanity should be considered is a crazy thing that crazy people do.
OK. I think the image was more about the "echo chamber" nature of a lot of media. Given that people writing about Trump have very limited access to what Trump thinks or even does, it's no wonder that messages are more about preoccupations and fantasies than reality.
Do you think that considering trump's sanity is a crazy thing to do?
There is no problem "considering" anything, in the sense that to entertain any proposition is rational, if only for a short while in order to reject it. I'll "consider" that the moon is made of green cheese. In the case of Trump's sanity, I think it is an unproductive thing to do. But there are a lot of journalists out there who have little access to original material, and a lot of people who dislike Trump who need a stick to beat him with.

Here's an interesting article about the folly of pathologising political differences:
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/alan ... le/2645853

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