Changes in attitudes towards global warming

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In the past 5 years I have become...

More concerned about man-made climate change
23
50%
Equally concerned about man-made climate change
9
20%
Less concerned about man-made climate change
6
13%
Never believed in it, still don't
5
11%
Climate change? Global warming? Bring it on!
3
7%
 
Total votes: 46

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Leeuwenhoek2
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Re: Changes in attitudes towards global warming

Post by Leeuwenhoek2 » Mon Dec 18, 2017 5:31 am

retrofuturist wrote:
Mon May 01, 2017 8:02 am
I'm interested to know whether people's attitudes towards global warming or climate change have changed over time?
Feel free to explain your reasoning...
To be consistent the survey question was about change in attitude towards global warming in the past 5 years.
No, my level of concern has not changed that I'm aware of.

I can't think of some event or discovery or report in the last 5 years that IMO would be basis for a change in concern.
Not much change in:
  • basic science related to climate (that would be cause for more concern)
  • trends in weather measurements (climate = trends or patterns of weather over say 30 years)
  • extreme weather (it surprizes me how stable those trends are)
  • climate models
  • international agreements (Paris treaty)
  • national progress on climate goals
  • public attitudes / polling results - fairly stable
  • IPCC reports
  • Little change in climate research direction or funding for basic science
  • Little change in funding levels for research on climate adaption, mitigation or energy technology
In my mind notable events over the last 5 years related to climate change include:
  • Paris treaty - US president signs with questionable constitutional authorization
  • Release of IPCC AR5 (Assessment Report # 5) in 2013
    https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/
  • Plans, pressure or actual early decommissioning of nuclear power plants - in some countries those plans have been reversed.
  • Increasing awareness of the impact/possible importance of nuclear electrical power
  • Increasing political polarization in western countries
  • Possible increase of talk or threats to investigate or criminalize "climate change denial"

====================
POLL RESULTS
I think it's telling that of the over %45 of respondents who said they were more concerned ... zero or close to zero offered an explanation.
  • Perhaps the numbers might be partly explained by a small sample size and a self-select audience.
  • I assume that most of the respondents were familiar with the topic 5 years ago.
  • The missing explanations might be understood in part as posters are used to responding with what related thoughts come to mind rather than addressing the topic posed in the initial post (a common practice in forums sometimes called "coat racking").
But if that poll result is representative then given my analysis at this time I would expect significant levels of ineffective or counter-productive leadership from nearly half the Buddhist community on this issue.

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Kim OHara
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Re: Changes in attitudes towards global warming

Post by Kim OHara » Mon Dec 25, 2017 10:25 am

Leeuwenhoek2 wrote:
Mon Dec 18, 2017 5:31 am
POLL RESULTS
I think it's telling that of the over %45 of respondents who said they were more concerned ... zero or close to zero offered an explanation.
  • Perhaps the numbers might be partly explained by a small sample size and a self-select audience.
  • I assume that most of the respondents were familiar with the topic 5 years ago.
  • The missing explanations might be understood in part as posters are used to responding with what related thoughts come to mind rather than addressing the topic posed in the initial post (a common practice in forums sometimes called "coat racking").
But if that poll result is representative then given my analysis at this time I would expect significant levels of ineffective or counter-productive leadership from nearly half the Buddhist community on this issue.
Your first three reasons are enough to explain any peculiarities of the results. Polls like this on any online forum are statistically meaningless and can only give the most general indication of what the members might think, and no indication at all of what the wider community might think.

:namaste:
Kim

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Kim OHara
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Re: Changes in attitudes towards global warming

Post by Kim OHara » Mon Dec 25, 2017 10:28 am

Here's a change in attitudes which will make more of a difference than most, and in itself indicates a broader change in attitudes.
B.H.P. Billiton, Acknowledging Climate Change, to Quit Coal Group

MELBOURNE, Australia — One of the world’s largest coal companies, acknowledging the growing momentum toward addressing climate change, said it planned to pull out of a major industry group over its environmental stances.

B.H.P. Billiton, the British-Australian mining company, said in a report Tuesday that it planned to withdraw from the World Coal Association, an international lobbying group, because of differences in climate and energy policies. The report also noted that B.H.P. would review its relationship with the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in light of the Trump administration’s decision to withdraw from the Paris climate accord.

The move highlights the delicate considerations huge mining companies must contend with as they seek to balance profit with social and environmental awareness.

It represents the latest example of a business that is largely built around traditional fossil fuels responding to investor and government concern over climate change.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/19/busi ... .html?_r=0

:twothumbsup:

:clap: :clap: :clap: :clap:

:D
Kim

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Re: Changes in attitudes towards global warming

Post by Kim OHara » Mon Dec 25, 2017 10:43 am

This new movie may help shift things along faster ...
Clean Energy Revolution Will Usher in a 'New Normal', Says James Redford
The filmmaker explains why his new documentary had to happen now.


James Redford knows that you know renewable technology will help fight climate change. But the filmmaker is also aware that you don’t really know what renewable technology actually looks like — and that there are steps regular people can make to ensure it’s universally adopted.

That’s why he made Happening: A Clean Energy Revolution. The documentary, which premiered Monday on HBO, follows Redford on a clean energy road trip across the United States, during which he gazes up in awe at wind turbines, stands among thousands of sun-tracking mirrors, and listens as people from Nevada to New York explain how their communities are pushing for the switch to clean energy. Rather than use this documentary to convince viewers that climate change is real — that’s already obvious, in his opinion — he aims to show people how they can actively mitigate its threat. ...
:reading: https://www.inverse.com/article/39336-c ... ocumentary

:namaste:
Kim

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Leeuwenhoek2
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Re: Changes in attitudes towards global warming

Post by Leeuwenhoek2 » Tue Dec 26, 2017 11:06 pm

Kim OHara wrote:
Mon Dec 25, 2017 10:25 am
Leeuwenhoek2 wrote:
Mon Dec 18, 2017 5:31 am
POLL RESULTS
But if that poll result is representative then given my analysis at this time I would expect significant levels of ineffective or counter-productive leadership from nearly half the Buddhist community on this issue.
Your first three reasons are enough to explain any peculiarities of the results. Polls like this on any online forum are statistically meaningless and can only give the most general indication of what the members might think, and no indication at all of what the wider community might think.
Kim I interpret the poll in much the way you did but I think you push your conclusion too hard. This is salient because there is more information from multiple sources about what self-identified Buddhists and major political figures say about the issue that supports the perspective that there are significant levels of ineffective or counter-productive leadership on this this topic. (Acknowledged: That conclusion, much like estimating the impacts of CO2 on society, entails a multi-step analysis) What we don't have is more detailed polling about beliefs and approaches to determine the magnitude.
  • Obviously the poll does give some indication /general read on the %45 who answered this poll.
  • Because this sub-group is part of the wider community we do have an indication of what the wider community thinks. What we don't know is how many.
I believe our exchange on this topic illustrates why socially engaged Buddhism is unlikey to do well unless it's informed by a diversity of viewpoints (inter-dependency, interconnectioness); that seeks to have a multi-partisan understanding (the roots of "the middle way"; and perhaps even the choice to be actively trans-partisan.

Importance of viewpoint diversity with a focus on the quality of social science research: https://heterodoxacademy.org/problems/

----------------------------------------
The Science of Science Communication
Example of a process and practice that is more likely to change attitudes:
https://climateoutreach.org/
https://climateoutreach.org/ wrote:Our purpose is to ensure that climate change and its impacts are understood, accepted and acted upon across the breadth of society.

We produce world-leading advice and practical tools for engagement by combining scientific research methods with years of hands-on experience. Our services support governments, businesses, NGOs and grassroots organisations. We specialise in how to engage hard-to-reach audiences – developing climate connection programmes with communities such as youth, the centre-right, faith and migrant groups

In our decade as leaders in climate change communication we’ve seen it all: the photographs of sad polar bears, the complicated graphs, the science speak, the doom and gloom omens of the apocalypse, and the wailed laments of “won’t somebody please think of the future of the planet?!”.

Our rigorous research has shown us that these messages simply aren’t effective for the majority of people. Worse than that, they can be disempowering. These stories make many people turn away, because climate change is seen as a niche concern, a complex scientific problem, an issue for the future only, and something that makes us fearful.

Climate change demands a response across society, from people of all ages, faiths, nationalities and sides of the political spectrum. That’s why our mission is to engage people with climate change from their perspective – not ours.
I’ve learnt the most about climate change from those who deny it | George Marshall | TEDxEastEnd

I can think of a couple of secular organization or reports that are similar in approach to climateoutreach.org. But I can't recall a Buddhist one. Anyone??
Last edited by Leeuwenhoek2 on Wed Dec 27, 2017 3:11 am, edited 1 time in total.

chownah
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Re: Changes in attitudes towards global warming

Post by chownah » Wed Dec 27, 2017 2:27 am

The poll is bunk.....get over it. If you hire a successful statistician which will cost alot of money and have them analyse the poll results they will provide you with a thicket of disclaimers and caveats...but...they will present them in a way that will make you feel that you were not stupid in not realizing that the poll is bunk.....if there even exists a successful statistician who would comment other than to laugh.......hahahhahahahhaha
chownah

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Leeuwenhoek2
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Re: Changes in attitudes towards global warming

Post by Leeuwenhoek2 » Wed Dec 27, 2017 3:26 am

chownah wrote:
Wed Dec 27, 2017 2:27 am
The poll is bunk.....get over it.
I assume you are referring to my post here
On the one hand "all polls are bunk" as the saying goes. On the other "Bunk" is a term so vague and protean that your claim is effectively a tautology. You are right. I'm sure it's bunk by some definition. :bow:

:jedi: Meanwhile in a galaxy far away ...
Not knowing what bunk means to you, I'm going to stick with my understanding of social science survey methods, logic and even my understanding of the Buddha's example . It's neither bunk nor is it definitive for the reasons qualified in my post.

... Unless you were referring to a bunk bed -- in which case I'm going to let sleeping logic lie. :zzz:

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Kim OHara
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Re: Changes in attitudes towards global warming

Post by Kim OHara » Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:33 am

Leeuwenhoek2 wrote:
Tue Dec 26, 2017 11:06 pm

...Because this sub-group is part of the wider community we do have an indication of what the wider community thinks. What we don't know is how many.
Since this sub-group is a self-selected and minuscule sub-group of the wider community, we can't trust - at all - any conclusions about the wider community's views. There are statistical methods for assessing the reliability of polls and this meets none of them.
:toilet:
I believe our exchange on this topic illustrates why socially engaged Buddhism is unlikey to do well unless it's informed by a diversity of viewpoints (inter-dependency, interconnectioness); that seeks to have a multi-partisan understanding (the roots of "the middle way"; and perhaps even the choice to be actively trans-partisan.

Importance of viewpoint diversity with a focus on the quality of social science research: https://heterodoxacademy.org/problems/

----------------------------------------
The Science of Science Communication
Example of a process and practice that is more likely to change attitudes:
https://climateoutreach.org/ ...
Thanks. I will follow these up when I have time. Meanwhile, here's one for you -
"Common Cause - the case for working with our Cultural Values" http://assets.wwf.org.uk/downloads/comm ... report.pdf

This paper suggests that we need to take a values based approach, not a faith-based approach, if we are going to turn our society back from the disastrous path we are following currently - even if our own motivation is grounded in our faith.

:namaste:
Kim

chownah
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Re: Changes in attitudes towards global warming

Post by chownah » Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:36 am

Leeuwenhoek2 wrote:
Wed Dec 27, 2017 3:26 am
I'm going to stick with my understanding of social science survey methods, logic and even my understanding of the Buddha's example .
What is your understanding of social sience survey methods and equally important the statistical analysis needed to interpret the results?
chownah
Edit: I see that Kim OHara has posted that the poll can't be trusted at all and has shown exactly why.....but I want to posit that it is even worse than that......the poll is even worse than "can't be trusted at all" because the glaring inadequacy which kim ohara has pointed out is not the only one. I haven't gone into analytical mode in considering the exact details of the pole because it is such a waste of time but my partially formed (half baked) opinion is that there is no element of adequacy incorporated in the pole!!! :jawdrop: :jumping: :popcorn:
chownah

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Leeuwenhoek2
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Re: Changes in attitudes towards global warming

Post by Leeuwenhoek2 » Wed Dec 27, 2017 8:09 am

Kim, chownah, I'm thinking that this likely explains most of the recent disagreement.

An observation; There is often a tendency to resort to universal quantifiers ALL or NONE in conversation. Sometimes called "all or nothing thinking" this pattern of judgement has been noted as a common cognitive distortion which often leads to depression and suffering. (See Cognitive Behavioral Therapy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive ... al_therapy)

The use of all or nothing is somewhat understandable because other quantifiers are sometimes awkward to express in English. The IPCC in their climate reports has had to wrestle with how to express certainty, degree of confidence, etc.
But in many cases another quantifier such as SOME or a likelihood scale or degree of confidence might be more accurate and useful. So a high degree of uncertainty might be expressed as %44 +/- 20. (I pulled the +/-20 out of my hat for the example .. or umm ... strike that! Its my somewhat expert view as elicited by me :tongue: )

I tend to think in percentages and error bars because in the end it's the easiest.

Indeed the more recent IPCC Climate Assessment Reports use the likehood scale below as well as separate scales for confidence, amount of evidence, and agreement. Those scales are used in some of the best known sections of the IPCC reports.
Note that it's accepted that these scales may be estimates based on expert opinion which is partly subjective. As with all or nearly all fields of science they do the best they can with evidence, models, theory, etc.
IPCC wrote: Likelihood may be based on statistical or modeling analyses, elicitation of expert views, or other quantitative
analyses. The categories defined in this table can be considered to have “fuzzy” boundaries.

Table 1. Likelihood Scale
Term ----------- Likelihood of the Outcome
Virtually certain -- 99-100% probability
Very likely ------- 90-100% probability
Likely --------------- 66-100% probability
About as likely as not 33 to 66% probability
Unlikely ------------- 0-33% probability
Very unlikely ------- 0-10% probability
Exceptionally unlikely 0-1% probability
-- Guidance Note for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties
https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/supporting-mate ... ce-note.pd

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retrofuturist
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Re: Changes in attitudes towards global warming

Post by retrofuturist » Fri Dec 29, 2017 7:52 am

Greetings,



Metta,
Paul. :)
"Do not force others, including children, by any means whatsoever, to adopt your views, whether by authority, threat, money, propaganda, or even education." - Ven. Thich Nhat Hanh

"The uprooting of identity is seen by the noble ones as pleasurable; but this contradicts what the whole world sees." (Snp 3.12)

"One discerns wrong view as wrong view, and right view as right view. This is one's right view." (MN 117)

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Re: Changes in attitudes towards global warming

Post by lyndon taylor » Fri Dec 29, 2017 8:08 am

retrofuturist wrote:
Fri Dec 29, 2017 7:52 am
Greetings,



Metta,
Paul. :)
Yeah, so Trumps an idiot, but we knew that already!!
18 years ago I made one of the most important decisions of my life and entered a local Cambodian Buddhist Temple as a temple boy and, for only 3 weeks, an actual Therevada Buddhist monk. I am not a scholar, great meditator, or authority on Buddhism, but Buddhism is something I love from the Bottom of my heart. It has taught me sobriety, morality, peace, and very importantly that my suffering is optional, and doesn't have to run my life. I hope to give back what little I can to the Buddhist community, sincerely former monk John

http://trickleupeconomictheory.blogspot.com/

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Kim OHara
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Re: Changes in attitudes towards global warming

Post by Kim OHara » Fri Dec 29, 2017 11:09 am

This one goes too far, I think, but it does represent an attempt to plan more than five years ahead.
It’s Time to Discuss the Ethics of Subjecting New Humans to the Climate Change Era ...
:reading: https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/it ... f1200cfd40

:namaste:
Kim

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Kim OHara
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Re: Changes in attitudes towards global warming

Post by Kim OHara » Fri Dec 29, 2017 11:19 am

lyndon taylor wrote:
Fri Dec 29, 2017 8:08 am
retrofuturist wrote:
Fri Dec 29, 2017 7:52 am
Greetings,



Metta,
Paul. :)
Yeah, so Trumps an idiot, but we knew that already!!
:rolleye:
That one's all over my FB feed already. One of the kindest responses was, "Anyone who doesn't understand the difference between the weather and the climate definitely shouldn't be dictating policy. Or tweeting. He shouldn't even be allowed to tweet."
I will leave the rest to your imagination. :toilet:

:coffee:
Kim

chownah
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Re: Changes in attitudes towards global warming

Post by chownah » Fri Dec 29, 2017 12:50 pm

Kim OHara wrote:
Fri Dec 29, 2017 11:19 am
lyndon taylor wrote:
Fri Dec 29, 2017 8:08 am
retrofuturist wrote:
Fri Dec 29, 2017 7:52 am
Greetings,



Metta,
Paul. :)
Yeah, so Trumps an idiot, but we knew that already!!
:rolleye:
That one's all over my FB feed already. One of the kindest responses was, "Anyone who doesn't understand the difference between the weather and the climate definitely shouldn't be dictating policy. Or tweeting. He shouldn't even be allowed to tweet."
I will leave the rest to your imagination. :toilet:

:coffee:
Kim
Don't you guys get it? He probably knows that what he is saying is BS....but his base eats it up....this is their gut reaction to climate change and he is giving them strokes for their beliefs....solidifying the base....
chownah

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