Global Warming: Recent Data

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Kim OHara
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by Kim OHara » Wed Feb 28, 2018 12:20 pm

chownah wrote:
Tue Feb 27, 2018 12:11 pm
Kim ohara,
It seems to me that within the last year there was a re-assessment of the liklihood of the various predictions about how bad it would get how fast and it seems that the more drastic scenarios were pared off as being too extreme and no longer considered viable. There wasn't any discussion here about that study that I saw but it went around the media for a short while. Do you remember that?....does it likely impact the more extreme data in the chart you just presented since the data is a bit dated?
chownah
Hi, chownah,
I don't remember such a downwards revision but if you can find those reports I would be interested.
I don't really see how any reduction in the "more drastic scenarios" could be possible, however, since there are tipping points (especially Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheets, methane bursts from melting permafrost) which are "known unknowns" in that we know that if and when they happen, they will be huge. We don't know whether or when they might happen, but we have to treat them as possible, so high-end estimates must be very high.

:namaste:
Kim

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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by chownah » Wed Feb 28, 2018 1:41 pm

Here is one....there were others. I was surprised that no one mentioned this here.
https://www.theguardian.com/science/201 ... says-study
chownah

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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by Virgo » Wed Feb 28, 2018 6:33 pm

Kim OHara wrote:
Wed Feb 28, 2018 12:15 pm
Virgo wrote:
Tue Feb 27, 2018 5:35 pm
2-8 ft according to the study quoted. 2 ft (65 cm) being the minimum.

Kevin
Yes, and the higher figure was mentioned in the video - once, I think - but the figure which was repeated so often was the low one.
:shrug:
Kim
Yes Kim, that's right. I don;t know why.

:anjali: Kevin
Last edited by Virgo on Wed Feb 28, 2018 11:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Kim OHara
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by Kim OHara » Wed Feb 28, 2018 10:13 pm

chownah wrote:
Wed Feb 28, 2018 1:41 pm
Here is one....there were others. I was surprised that no one mentioned this here.
https://www.theguardian.com/science/201 ... says-study
chownah
Thanks. Now that I've seen it, I remember it from a year ago, and I even remembered why I didn't mention it here.
At first, I was concerned that it might mislead people because it's about the climate's sensitivity to CO2, not directly about the climate's likely temperature change, and while I was thinking about that I came across an article on RealClimate (only three days later, which is pretty impressive) which basically told me I needn't bother because the news was "premature" and, reading between the lines a bit, doubtful.
RealClimate's article is here - http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar ... ent-690108. It's too technical for me to follow the all detail but the plain-English bits begin and end like this:
The claim of reduced uncertainty for equilibrium climate sensitivity is premature

Filed under: Climate Science In the News — rasmus @ 21 January 2018

A recent story in the Guardian claims that new calculations reduce the uncertainty associated with a global warming:

"A revised calculation of how greenhouse gases drive up the planet’s temperature reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half, …"

It was based on a study recently published in Nature (Cox et al. 2018), however, I think its conclusions are premature.


The calculations in question involved both an over-simplification and a set of assumptions which limit their precision, if applied to Earth’s real climate system.

They provide a nice idealised and theoretical description, but they should not be interpreted as an accurate reflection of the real world.

There are nevertheless some interesting concepts presented in the analysis, such as the connection between climate sensitivity and the magnitude of natural variations. ...

Cox et al. assumed that the same feedback mechanisms are involved in both natural variations and a climate change due to increased CO2. This means that we should expect a high climate sensitivity if there are pronounced natural variations.

But it is not that simple, as different feedback mechanisms are associated with different time scales. Some are expected to react rapidly, but others associated with the oceans and the carbon cycle may be more sluggish. There could also be tipping points, which would imply a high climate sensitivity. ...

I nevertheless think the study is interesting and it is impressive that the results are so similar to previously published results. However, I do not think the results are associated with the stated precision because of the assumptions and the simplifications involved. Hence, I disagree with the following statement presented in the Guardian:

"These scientists have produced a more accurate estimate of how the planet will respond to increasing CO2 levels."
Rasmus' article attracted 73 comments, many of them well-informed, so there's plenty more to read on the subject.

:namaste:
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manas
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by manas » Sun Mar 04, 2018 9:44 pm

A question for those who believe in 'Global Warming' is, why the extremely cold Winters, when one of our own esteemed Aussie scientists predicted 'cold Winters will become a thing of the past?" Boy has he been proven wrong in the last few years. Right now across Europe, people are digging their homes out of all the snow and ice.

I simply don't trust computer modelling, over actual, on the ground observations. ACTUAL conditions mean much more, that predictions based on a computer program. The Earth is a complex, living system, infinitely more complex than a computer model alone can describe.
Knowing this body is like a clay jar,
securing this mind like a fort,
attack Mara with the spear of discernment,
then guard what's won without settling there,
without laying claim.

- Dhp 40

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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by Virgo » Sun Mar 04, 2018 10:42 pm

manas wrote:
Sun Mar 04, 2018 9:44 pm
A question for those who believe in 'Global Warming' is, why the extremely cold Winters, when one of our own esteemed Aussie scientists predicted 'cold Winters will become a thing of the past?" Boy has he been proven wrong in the last few years. Right now across Europe, people are digging their homes out of all the snow and ice.

I simply don't trust computer modelling, over actual, on the ground observations. ACTUAL conditions mean much more, that predictions based on a computer program. The Earth is a complex, living system, infinitely more complex than a computer model alone can describe.
Well we have consistently had the hottest years on average in recorded history recently. That doesn't mean it isn't going to snow. It simply means that average temperatures are increasing. Saying you don't believe in it is tantamount to saying you don't believe in science. It is like being in a closed garage with a car running and the placefilling up with invisible carbon-monoxide, but since it is invisible to you you say you don't believe there is anything poisonous and so you start taking deeper breaths instead of exiting.

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Kim OHara
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by Kim OHara » Mon Mar 05, 2018 5:00 am

manas wrote:
Sun Mar 04, 2018 9:44 pm
A question for those who believe in 'Global Warming' is, why the extremely cold Winters, when one of our own esteemed Aussie scientists predicted 'cold Winters will become a thing of the past?" Boy has he been proven wrong in the last few years. Right now across Europe, people are digging their homes out of all the snow and ice.

I simply don't trust computer modelling, over actual, on the ground observations. ACTUAL conditions mean much more, that predictions based on a computer program. The Earth is a complex, living system, infinitely more complex than a computer model alone can describe.
I can give you four answers, just off the top of my head. I am sure the first two are right (from very basic maths), and I am fairly sure of the other two.

(1) Weather is not climate. A burst of cold weather doesn't tell us anything about long term trends.
(2) Our weather is getting wilder, with more extreme colder events and hotter events. There are more (and more extreme) hotter events than cold ones and that is in perfect agreement with the the average temperature increasing.
(3) You say the winters are getting colder, but I don't think they are. We're getting warmer winters but they are punctuated by really intense cold spells and storms - and those grab our attention.
(4) In the same way, local events grab the headlines but don't tell us anything about what is happening in the rest of the world.

I can provide references if you like ... but I can't make you believe anything you're unwilling to consider.

:namaste:
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by Kim OHara » Mon Mar 05, 2018 5:04 am

manas wrote:
Sun Mar 04, 2018 9:44 pm
A question for those who believe in 'Global Warming' is, why the extremely cold Winters, when one of our own esteemed Aussie scientists predicted 'cold Winters will become a thing of the past?" Boy has he been proven wrong in the last few years. Right now across Europe, people are digging their homes out of all the snow and ice.

I simply don't trust computer modelling, over actual, on the ground observations. ACTUAL conditions mean much more, that predictions based on a computer program. The Earth is a complex, living system, infinitely more complex than a computer model alone can describe.
I can give you four answers, just off the top of my head. I am sure the first two are right (from very basic maths), and I am fairly sure of the other two.

(1) Weather is not climate. A burst of cold weather doesn't tell us anything about long term trends.
(2) Our weather is getting wilder, with more extreme colder events and hotter events. There are more (and more extreme) hotter events than cold ones and that is in perfect agreement with the the average temperature increasing.
(3) You say the winters are getting colder, but I don't think they are. We're getting warmer winters but they are punctuated by really intense cold spells and storms - and those grab our attention.
(4) In the same way, local events grab the headlines but don't tell us anything about what is happening in the rest of the world.

I can provide references if you like ... but I can't make you believe anything you're unwilling to consider.

:namaste:
Kim

P.S. Make that five.
You're wanting to prioritise actual, on the ground observations over computer modelling but actual, on the ground observations can't say anything about the future. For that, we have weather forecasting, which is computer modelling over short terms, and climate science, which is computer modelling over longer terms, and both are based firmly on actual, on the ground observations going back a century or more. Now what was your objection again?
:thinking:

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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by manas » Mon Mar 05, 2018 5:34 am

Kim OHara wrote:
Mon Mar 05, 2018 5:04 am

P.S. Make that five.
You're wanting to prioritise actual, on the ground observations over computer modelling but actual, on the ground observations can't say anything about the future. For that, we have weather forecasting, which is computer modelling over short terms, and climate science, which is computer modelling over longer terms, and both are based firmly on actual, on the ground observations going back a century or more. Now what was your objection again?
:thinking:
About that, I heard someone mention that, the monitoring stations used to make those actual, on-the-ground measurements, are located more in areas where one could expect higher temperatures. To be completely fair, we would have to spread such monitoring stations at even intervals, all over the planet - which is impossible, at this time anyway.

I would not be here if I wasn't at least open to changing my intense skepticism regarding AGW. Don't worry about providing too much data, I think I'll just read over older posts, I'm sure you and others, have already gone to lengths to provide that. I'm open partly because, a few scientists (and highly intelligent people I respect) DO support the idea of AGW, which does make we want to revisit the subject.
Knowing this body is like a clay jar,
securing this mind like a fort,
attack Mara with the spear of discernment,
then guard what's won without settling there,
without laying claim.

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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by Kim OHara » Mon Mar 05, 2018 7:02 am

manas wrote:
Mon Mar 05, 2018 5:34 am
Kim OHara wrote:
Mon Mar 05, 2018 5:04 am

P.S. Make that five.
You're wanting to prioritise actual, on the ground observations over computer modelling but actual, on the ground observations can't say anything about the future. For that, we have weather forecasting, which is computer modelling over short terms, and climate science, which is computer modelling over longer terms, and both are based firmly on actual, on the ground observations going back a century or more. Now what was your objection again?
:thinking:
About that, I heard someone mention that, the monitoring stations used to make those actual, on-the-ground measurements, are located more in areas where one could expect higher temperatures. To be completely fair, we would have to spread such monitoring stations at even intervals, all over the planet - which is impossible, at this time anyway.

I would not be here if I wasn't at least open to changing my intense skepticism regarding AGW. Don't worry about providing too much data, I think I'll just read over older posts, I'm sure you and others, have already gone to lengths to provide that. I'm open partly because, a few scientists (and highly intelligent people I respect) DO support the idea of AGW, which does make we want to revisit the subject.
Fair enough.
Just quickly re monitoring stations and coverage: it's a well known denialist argument but climate science has figured ways to compensate for the gaps.
https://skepticalscience.com/surface-te ... ements.htm says -
In 2009 some people worried that weather stations placed in poor locations could make the temperature record unreliable. Scientists at the National Climatic Data Center took those critics seriously and did a careful study of the possible problem. Their article "On the reliability of the U.S. surface temperature record" (Menne et al. 2010) had a surprising conclusion. The temperatures from stations that critics claimed were "poorly sited" actually showed slightly cooler maximum daily temperatures compared to the average.

In 2010 Dr. Richard Muller criticized the "hockey stick" graph and decided to do his own temperature analysis. He organized a group called Berkeley Earth to do an independent study of the temperature record. They specifically wanted to answer the question is "the temperature rise on land improperly affected by the four key biases (station quality, homogenization, urban heat island, and station selection)?" Their conclusion was NO. None of those factors bias the temperature record.
There's more on that page if you want.

Just quickly re the "few scientists (and highly intelligent people I respect) DO support the idea of AGW" ... there are more than a "few" - see https://www.desmogblog.com/2012/11/15/w ... -pie-chart

:namaste:
Kim

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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by robertk » Mon Mar 05, 2018 8:03 am

manas wrote:
Sun Mar 04, 2018 9:44 pm
A question for those who believe in 'Global Warming' is, why the extremely cold Winters, when one of our own esteemed Aussie scientists predicted 'cold Winters will become a thing of the past?" Boy has he been proven wrong in the last few years. Right now across Europe, people are digging their homes out of all the snow and ice.

I simply don't trust computer modelling, over actual, on the ground observations. ACTUAL conditions mean much more, that predictions based on a computer program. The Earth is a complex, living system, infinitely more complex than a computer model alone can describe.
Funnily enough I took the family skiing in Davos last month- despite a warning from the office climate guru that there would be not enough snow.
There was plenty, believe me:
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/eco ... -1.3366154
The skies over the Swiss Alps cleared on Tuesday after the biggest snowfall in the 48-year history of the annual World Economic Forum in Davos.
Of course the papers almost 20 years ago did suggest that snow would disappear soon - and science must be respected.

http://www.independent.co.uk/environmen ... 24017.html

Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past
BY CHARLES ONIANS

MONDAY 20 MARCH 2000
Britain's winter ends tomorrow with further indications of a striking environmental change: snow is starting to disappear from our lives.
Sledges, snowmen, snowballs and the excitement of waking to find that the stuff has settled outside are all a rapidly diminishing part of Britain's culture, as warmer winters - which scientists are attributing to global climate change - produce not only fewer white Christmases, but fewer white Januaries and Februaries.
The first two months of 2000 were virtually free of significant snowfall in much of lowland Britain, and December brought only moderate snowfall in the South-east. It is the continuation of a trend that has been increasingly visible in the past 15 years: in the south of England, for instance, from 1970 to 1995 snow and sleet fell for an average of 3.7 days, while from 1988 to 1995 the average was 0.7 days. London's last substantial snowfall was in February 1991.
Global warming, the heating of the atmosphere by increased amounts of industrial gases, is now accepted as a reality by the international community. Average temperatures in Britain were nearly 0.6°C higher in the Nineties than in 1960-90, and it is estimated that they will increase by 0.2C every decade over the coming century. Eight of the 10 hottest years on record occurred in the Nineties.
However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become "a very rare and exciting event".
"Children just aren't going to know what snow is," he said.

The effects of snow-free winter in Britain are already becoming apparent. This year, for the first time ever, Hamleys, Britain's biggest toyshop, had no sledges on display in its Regent Street store. "It was a bit of a first," a spokesperson said.
Fen skating, once a popular sport on the fields of East Anglia, now takes place on indoor artificial rinks. Malcolm Robinson, of the Fenland Indoor Speed Skating Club in Peterborough, says they have not skated outside since 1997. "As a boy, I can remember being on ice most winters. Now it's few and far between," he said.
Michael Jeacock, a Cambridgeshire local historian, added that a generation was growing up "without experiencing one of the greatest joys and privileges of living in this part of the world - open-air skating".
Warmer winters have significant environmental and economic implications, and a wide range of research indicates that pests and plant diseases, usually killed back by sharp frosts, are likely to flourish. But very little research has been done on the cultural implications of climate change - into the possibility, for example, that our notion of Christmas might have to shift.
Professor Jarich Oosten, an anthropologist at the University of Leiden in the Netherlands, says that even if we no longer see snow, it will remain culturally important.
"We don't really have wolves in Europe any more, but they are still an important part of our culture and everyone knows what they look like," he said.
David Parker, at the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research in Berkshire, says ultimately, British children could have only virtual experience of snow. Via the internet, they might wonder at polar scenes - or eventually "feel" virtual cold.
Heavy snow will return occasionally, says Dr Viner, but when it does we will be unprepared. "We're really going to get caught out. Snow will probably cause chaos in 20 years time," he said.
The chances are certainly now stacked against the sortof heavy snowfall in cities that inspired Impressionist painters, such as Sisley, and the 19th century poet laureate Robert Bridges, who wrote in "London Snow" of it, "stealthily and perpetually settling and loosely lying".
Not any more, it seems.

I wonder if in the year 2000 anyone who didn't buy into the esteemed scientists prediction was said to not believe in science.( David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become "a very rare and exciting event".
"Children just aren't going to know what snow is," he said)

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Kim OHara
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by Kim OHara » Mon Mar 05, 2018 9:47 am

robertk wrote:
Mon Mar 05, 2018 8:03 am
... I wonder if in the year 2000 anyone who didn't buy into the esteemed scientists prediction was said to not believe in science.( David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become "a very rare and exciting event".
"Children just aren't going to know what snow is," he said)
Funnily enough ...
Simon E. wrote:
Sat Mar 03, 2018 10:35 am
...Yes this is a unusual weather 'event' in terms of Europe.
It would not compare to winters in Canada or northern central USA, but we do have not the history and subsequent means of coping.
This is particularly so in the case of Southern England where the world's image of England in winter is the result of descriptions made of a mini ice age of a decade or so during the time that Dickens was writing.
The reality is that my eldest granddaughter did not see snow until she was in her teens.
So the heavy snow that lies in her (and my) hometown today is something we collectively have not been prepared for historically.
That's from the other Wheel, so if the embedded link doesn't work you need to go to https://dharmawheel.net/viewtopic.php?f ... 04#p438389

A "very rare and exciting event," isn't it?

:thinking:
Kim

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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by Virgo » Mon Mar 05, 2018 11:58 pm

robertk wrote:
Mon Mar 05, 2018 8:03 am
manas wrote:
Sun Mar 04, 2018 9:44 pm
A question for those who believe in 'Global Warming' is, why the extremely cold Winters, when one of our own esteemed Aussie scientists predicted 'cold Winters will become a thing of the past?" Boy has he been proven wrong in the last few years. Right now across Europe, people are digging their homes out of all the snow and ice.

I simply don't trust computer modelling, over actual, on the ground observations. ACTUAL conditions mean much more, that predictions based on a computer program. The Earth is a complex, living system, infinitely more complex than a computer model alone can describe.
Funnily enough I took the family skiing in Davos last month- despite a warning from the office climate guru that there would be not enough snow.
There was plenty, believe me:
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/eco ... -1.3366154
The skies over the Swiss Alps cleared on Tuesday after the biggest snowfall in the 48-year history of the annual World Economic Forum in Davos.
Hi Robert. I am glad to hear that and it sounds like you and your family had a great time. :anjali:

But while there may have been record snows in Davos, I was in Colorado earlier this year in a town just below ski slopes that sit at almost 12,000 ft elevation (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolf_Creek_ski_area) and the town was devastated economically because of the lack of snow on the slopes. The slopes were closed. That was December, and a local told me that they always have snow by Thanksgiving (which is always the 4'th Thursday in November). Here it was mid-December and they hadn't had any although average snow fall in Nov is 2" short of a foot and average in Dec is 2" short of two feet (https://wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?copago). So this shows that just because we have record snow in one area, doesn't mean were aren't having record lows in other areas (not sure if Pagosa Springs broke any negative records but you certainly get the point)...

All the best,

Kev

P.S. In the next couple of days I will try to provide some good Scientific articles (or videos) in support of Global Climate Change.

Edit: P.P.S. By the way, I drove there from home which is over 2,000 miles each way (over 3200 kilometers each way).

Kevin

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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by Virgo » Tue Mar 06, 2018 1:25 am

Here is a good interview of James Hansen one of the worlds leading Climatologists.

It starts at about 4:30.



Chris Hedges also mentions how he was skiing in the Swiss Alps.

Here is a TED talk by James Hansen from back in 2012:




Kevin

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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by robertk » Tue Mar 06, 2018 4:55 am

Kim OHara wrote:
Mon Mar 05, 2018 9:47 am
robertk wrote:
Mon Mar 05, 2018 8:03 am
... I wonder if in the year 2000 anyone who didn't buy into the esteemed scientists prediction was said to not believe in science.( David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become "a very rare and exciting event".
"Children just aren't going to know what snow is," he said)
Funnily enough ...
Simon E. wrote:
Sat Mar 03, 2018 10:35 am
...Yes this is a unusual weather 'event' in terms of Europe.
It would not compare to winters in Canada or northern central USA, but we do have not the history and subsequent means of coping.
This is particularly so in the case of Southern England where the world's image of England in winter is the result of descriptions made of a mini ice age of a decade or so during the time that Dickens was writing.
The reality is that my eldest granddaughter did not see snow until she was in her teens.
So the heavy snow that lies in her (and my) hometown today is something we collectively have not been prepared for historically.
That's from the other Wheel, so if the embedded link doesn't work you need to go to https://dharmawheel.net/viewtopic.php?f ... 04#p438389
[
A "very rare and exciting event," isn't it?

:thinking:
Kim
A quick look at google
from 2017
https://www.google.com.kw/amp/metro.co. ... 46956/amp/
met-office-says-uk-hasnt-seen-snow-like-this-since-2013[/size][/b]
In case you hadn’t noticed, it’s snowing today.
And it seems to be pretty heavy in places, with some areas of the country cut off, parts of the London Underground shut, airports closed and a lot of disruption elsewhere.
But just how heavy is the snowfall? Well, according to experts we haven’t seen weather like this in the south for four years.
So yeah, it’s pretty snowy out there today.

The Met Office told Metro.co.uk that you have to go all the way back to 2013 to get similar weather in the region

and in 2009
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Februar ... _ssnowfall

The February 2009 Great Britain and Ireland snowfall was a prolonged period of snowfallthat began on 1 February 2009. Some areas experienced their largest snowfall levels in 18 years.[3] Snow fell over much of Western Europe.[4] The United Kingdom's Met Officeand Ireland's Met Éireann issued severe weather warnings in anticipation of the snowfall. More than 30 centimetres (12 in) of snow fell on parts of the North Downs and over 20 centimetres (8 in) in parts of the London area.[5] Such snow accumulation is uncommon in London.[6] On the morning of 6 February the majority of Great Britain and Ireland had snow cover, with the area surrounding the Bristol Channel (South Wales(Cardiff area) and South West England (Bristolarea)) being most affected – 55 centimetres (22 in) had settled overnight around



_________
or in 2008

... https://www.google.com.kw/amp/s/amp.the ... her-london
London has first October snow in over 70 years

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