Global Warming: Recent Data

A place to bring a contemplative / Dharmic perspective and opinions to current events and politics.
User avatar
Kim OHara
Posts: 4907
Joined: Wed Dec 09, 2009 5:47 am
Location: North Queensland, Australia

Re: Daily Power Use in Australia

Post by Kim OHara » Mon Jan 22, 2018 10:33 am

Leeuwenhoek2 wrote:
Sun Jan 21, 2018 6:00 am
Australia has been facing electrical power shortages for the second summer in a row.

Summertime 24 hour Electrical Usage curve for Australia
Image
In technical jargon this is known as a load curve. These summertime load curves are similar in nature for towns, for cities, capital cities, regions, States, as well as for the overall Country. These curves are similar to those during the summer months in many of the warmer US states.
Unfortunately the hours of highest need -- 4pm - 7pm -- don't match the hours of peak production for solar PV.
-- https://papundits.wordpress.com/2017/07 ... australia/
Here's what solar power actually does to reduce the peak demand on the grid - http://reneweconomy.com.au/rooftop-sola ... ave-33766/

I'm not quite going to say papundits is a really crappy source of information on this stuff :rolleye: but I will say that there are many better ones.

:coffee:
Kim

User avatar
Leeuwenhoek2
Posts: 154
Joined: Thu Jun 01, 2017 10:24 pm

Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by Leeuwenhoek2 » Mon Jan 22, 2018 11:03 am

Changes in electricity generation in Australia's NEM, by fuel source

Image
Image
All sources, including rooftop solar, are included. Thanks to papundits for extracting the charts from the pdf file.
Source STATE OF THE ENERGY MARKET MAY 2017, Australian Energy Regulator
Figure 1.9, page 31
-- https://www.aer.gov.au/publications/sta ... t-may-2017

------ No Changes in Demand
Note that nationally demand is not increasing. Nor is it expected to increase.

------ Already Built Generation Facilities
The State of the Energy Market reports that generators in the country have recently shut down two coal stations and have mothballed gas fired stations. Thus there is not a shortage of electrical generators in Australia!

If this is a crisis it is a crisis that is the result of social, political and economic/market decisions including the national Renewable energy target scheme (RET) . See box 1.3, page 34
State of the Energy Market wrote:{RET] Certificate prices recovered sharply from late 2014, and have continued to rise as it became clear that new renewable investment was not keeping pace with the rising target ...
------------- State of Coal Fired Generation
1.2.2 Coal fired generation (page 29)
Coal fired generation remains the dominant supply technology in the NEM, accounting for 52 per cent of
registered capacity and supplying 76 per cent of output in 2015–16.
  • I quote the bits about capacity because it's important to understand that registered or 'name plate' capacity is not the same thing as actual output over a period of time.
  • Capacity factor = average power produced over a period of time / registered capacity.
  • Capacity factors varies widely between technologies
Closed coal stations:
2016 Alinta -- 546 MW
2017 Hazelwood -- 1600 MW
Total: 2146 MW

The coals plants retired in the last two years could have supplied ~ %13 of national peak power - or put another way, would have provided a %13 safety margin. (Assuming a peak load of 28000 MW (rounding up from last weeks 27369 MW))
1.2.3 Gas powered generation
Gas is often described as a transition fuel towards a lower carbon economy, with the fast response times of open
cycle gas fired generators complementing the NEM’s rising dependence on intermittent wind and solar sources of
generation.

Across the NEM, gas powered plant accounted for 19 per cent of registered capacity in 2015–16, but
supplied only 7 per cent of output. South Australia is the region that most relies on gas powered generation.

Gas powered generation rose strongly while carbon pricing was in place (July 2012 to June 2014). But the abolition
of carbon pricing in 2014, coupled with rising gas fuel costs linked to Queensland’s LNG projects and a lack of
new gas supplies, has stalled gas powered generation
. In Queensland, for example, it slumped from 22 per cent of
NEM output in 2014 to just 12 per cent in 2016. A similar squeezing of gas powered generation is apparent in most
regions.

This trend is reflcted in the mothballing of gas plant, some of which was commissioned after 2000. Queensland
generator Stanwell, for example, mothballed its 385 MW Swanbank E gas plant in 2014, following the repeal
of carbon pricing. Rising gas fuel costs prolonged the mothballing of Swanbank E to December 2018 and also
contributed to the mothballing of part of South Australia’s gas fired Pelican Point plant in 2015.
This may partly address robertk's question.
------------------------------
Final Thought: Push a green strategy too hard and it becomes the next "elect a anti-green government into power" plan. Policies with bi-partisan or multi-partisan support are more likely to be successful and bring harmony.
Socially and politically active Buddhists ignore this lesson at their peril. I say that the dharma of engaged Buddhism needs be guided by a diverse, multi-partisan understanding.

chownah
Posts: 7308
Joined: Wed Aug 12, 2009 2:19 pm

Re: Daily Power Use in Australia

Post by chownah » Mon Jan 22, 2018 12:16 pm

Leeuwenhoek2 wrote:
Sun Jan 21, 2018 6:00 am

Summertime 24 hour Electrical Usage curve for Australia
Image
In technical jargon this is known as a load curve. These summertime load curves are similar in nature for towns, for cities, capital cities, regions, States, as well as for the overall Country. These curves are similar to those during the summer months in many of the warmer US states.
Unfortunately the hours of highest need -- 4pm - 7pm -- don't match the hours of peak production for solar PV.
I think you have misinterpreted the chart. I think that the peak load happens between 14:00 and 17:00 which is 2pm - 5pm.
chownah

chownah
Posts: 7308
Joined: Wed Aug 12, 2009 2:19 pm

Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by chownah » Tue Jan 23, 2018 6:52 am

I have held off on bringing new research articles to this thread because there would be so many that it would just clutter up the thread....but....since there has been alot of questioning as to whether batteries could be developed that could provide storage able to provide base load power levels with solar/wind inputs I thought I would bring this article to reassure us that there are great possibilities being pursued with likelihood of success. This article is not a guarantee but it is just one example of advances in battery technology which are regularly being made.

https://scitechdaily.com/metal-mesh-bre ... ry-issues/
This one might be implemented....if not this one then there are others which might...
chownah

User avatar
Leeuwenhoek2
Posts: 154
Joined: Thu Jun 01, 2017 10:24 pm

Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by Leeuwenhoek2 » Tue Jan 23, 2018 2:35 pm

Pumped Hydro Energy Storage better than Batteries.
Pumped hydro is most the cost effective solution for large scale electricity storage ...

Here are some bullet points from a recent report by an Energy task force commissioned by the New South Wales government.
Everything here has been out in the public domain for years, decades even.

For how many readers is this new or unfamiliar information?
(See the discussion of 'social license' below.)

Energy storage is likely to play a key role in the future energy system and technology is advancing rapidly. Storage technologies can play a number of different roles in the system depending on the type – including providing grid security services, peak demand
management, and firming intermittent generation sources.
  • It's unlikely that a single technology or category of energy storage will dominate.
  • Different storage technologies are best suited for different functions.
  • Where geology and water availability permit, large-scale energy storage by pumped hydro is most cost effective for delivering energy reliability.
  • Pumped hydro systems do not have to interreupt or dam existing rivers. It re-uses it's water in a closed loop.
  • Today Pumped Hydro Energy Storage (PHES) accounts for 97% of energy storage worldwide.
  • One study identified over 22,000 potential PHES sites in Australia, with 8,578 potential sites in NSW, amounting to a combined storage capacity of approximately 29,000 GWh.
Dis-advantages of batteries.
  • Higher cost.
  • There are a number of environmental impact issues with Lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries such as obtaining raw materials (including rare earth minerals), manufacturing, transporting, operation and disposal.
  • Fire.
  • Sensitivity to heat - higher temperatures reduce efficiency and increase wear.
=============================================

Final report from the Energy Security Taskforce
NSW Chief Scientist & Engineer, 19 December 2017
-- http://www.chiefscientist.nsw.gov.au/re ... -taskforce
AEMO - Australian Energy Market Operator
NSW - New South Wales, Australia
3.3 STORAGE
Energy storage is likely to play a key role in the future energy system and technology is advancing rapidly. Storage technologies can play a number of different roles in the system depending on the type – including providing grid security services, peak demand management, and firming intermittent generation sources.

There is unlikely to be a single technology or category of energy storage that dominates the market, as different technologies are best suited for different functions (Godfrey, Dowling, Forsyth, Grafton, & Wyld, 2017).

The Australian Council of Learned Academies (Godfrey et al., 2017) reported that “Battery systems are the most cost effective when stabilising the grid, provided they have a ‘fast frequency response’ capability through appropriate power electronics to synthesise the fast frequency response, and are ready for immediate discharge when required. By comparison, where geology and water availability permit, large-scale energy storage by pumped hydro is most cost effective for delivering energy reliability”.

Types of energy storage are usually broken down according to their method of energy storage (Luo, Wang, Dooner, & Clarke, 2015; Aneke & Wang, 2016):
• mechanical (such as pumped hydro or flywheel energy storage)
• electrochemical (such as conventional, rechargeable lead acid or lithium-ion
batteries)
• electrical (such as capacitors)
• chemical (such as hydrogen fuel cells)
• thermal (heat storage, such as molten salts)
• geothermal reservoirs
• thermochemical (solar fuels).
This section primarily discusses batteries and pumped hydro and their potential for the NSW electricity system ...
3.3.2 Pumped hydro energy storage
Pumped hydro energy storage (PHES) increasingly has potential in Australia to act as an effective electrical energy storage technology as an alternative to, or in conjunction with, batteries. PHES can contribute to both reliability and security of the grid, as it can provide the system security services associated with synchronous generation. Energy is stored when prices are low, such as from solar or wind energy, or overnight coal generation. During this time, water is pumped to the higher of two reservoirs and stored, then released when energy is needed.

PHES accounts for 97% of energy storage worldwide (Blakers, Lu, & Stocks, 2017a). Recent investment internationally has been in response to increased renewable generation as a flexible means to build reliability into electricity markets (Barbour, Wilson, Radcliffe, Ding, and Li (2016). In 2016, Japan had the largest PHES capacity at ~25 GW, followed by China at ~23 GW (Barbour et al., 2016). Europe currently has a combined installed PHES capacity of ~33 GW, with the largest proportion in Germany.

No large-scale PHES facilities have been constructed in Australia in the past 30 years (Godfrey et al., 2017). However, recently the Commonwealth Government announced a feasibility study to develop 2 GW of PHES through extension of Snowy Mountains Scheme. Further, ARENA has also recently funded a feasibility study for a coastal PHES project in South Australia that utilises the ocean as the lower reservoir. Also, construction of the Kidston PHES project in northern Queensland utilising a disused gold mine is due to commence shortly.

A study led by Andrew Blakers at the Australian National University identified over 22,000 potential PHES sites in Australia, with 8,578 potential sites in NSW, amounting to a combined storage capacity of approximately 29,000 GWh (Blakers, Stocks, Lu, Anderson, & Nadolny, 2017b). This assessment excluded national parks and protected land. Blakers et al. (2017b) also noted that the sites were often close to the transmission grid. Maps showing the locations of these potential sites are available (Blakers et al., 2017b).

Site selection for pumped hydro facilities requires multiple criteria to be considered with topography, climatic conditions and proximity to the grid being the main limiting factors. This is followed by water availability, wider environmental factors and ‘social license’. As described by Godfrey et al. (2017), “land use and water requirements for PHES have the potential to negatively influence the social license for the technology if environmental and water use impacts are not appropriately managed”.

In anticipation of proposals coming forward for new PHES developments, the Government should prepare for how it would manage approvals for this type of generation infrastructure in the NSW landscape through the planning system and what environmental approvals would be required. This could include developing guidelines for proponents, which could be similar to those developed for solar and wind developments (e.g. the Wind Energy Guideline by NSW DPE).

Recommendation 4
That the Government do pre-work on environmental permissions for likely new styles of energy infrastructure, for example pumped hydro, in order to facilitate the smooth adoption and development of appropriate energy technologies.

User avatar
Kim OHara
Posts: 4907
Joined: Wed Dec 09, 2009 5:47 am
Location: North Queensland, Australia

Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by Kim OHara » Tue Jan 23, 2018 9:25 pm

Leeuwenhoek2 wrote:
Tue Jan 23, 2018 2:35 pm
Pumped Hydro Energy Storage better than Batteries.
Pumped hydro is most the cost effective solution for large scale electricity storage ...

Here are some bullet points from a recent report by an Energy task force commissioned by the New South Wales government.
Everything here has been out in the public domain for years, decades even.

For how many readers is this new or unfamiliar information?
(See the discussion of 'social license' below.)

Energy storage is likely to play a key role in the future energy system and technology is advancing rapidly. Storage technologies can play a number of different roles in the system depending on the type – including providing grid security services, peak demand
management, and firming intermittent generation sources.

It's unlikely that a single technology or category of energy storage will dominate.
...
Thanks.
Not new to me, and I don't disagree with any of it.
It doesn't make new battery technology irrelevant, of course, since, as you say, "It's unlikely that a single technology or category of energy storage will dominate," and because technological changes will advantage or disadvantage different solutions.

:namaste:
Kim

chownah
Posts: 7308
Joined: Wed Aug 12, 2009 2:19 pm

Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by chownah » Wed Jan 24, 2018 2:35 am

Good. Then it seems that storage need not be considered to be a game stopper in the transition to 100% renewable, carbon neutral power.

There are lots of options for storage and none of them will be implemented until the time comes when they are needed.....when they are needed they will be deployed. What we need is more incentives to create more solar/wind. The fossil fuel industry has been using the storage problem as a way to hang on to some share of the energy market but now it can be seen that there really is no storage problem at all and we should be full speed ahead on solar/wind deployment....including incentives.....when storage becomes necessary it will be deployed.
chownah

User avatar
Kim OHara
Posts: 4907
Joined: Wed Dec 09, 2009 5:47 am
Location: North Queensland, Australia

Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by Kim OHara » Wed Jan 24, 2018 4:13 am

chownah wrote:
Wed Jan 24, 2018 2:35 am
Good. Then it seems that storage need not be considered to be a game stopper in the transition to 100% renewable, carbon neutral power.
Agreed.
chownah wrote:
Wed Jan 24, 2018 2:35 am
There are lots of options for storage and none of them will be implemented until the time comes when they are needed.....when they are needed they will be deployed. What we need is more incentives to create more solar/wind. The fossil fuel industry has been using the storage problem as a way to hang on to some share of the energy market but now it can be seen that there really is no storage problem at all and we should be full speed ahead on solar/wind deployment....including incentives.....when storage becomes necessary it will be deployed.
chownah
The whole question of "incentives" is complicated and, as you suggest, has often been used unfairly.

Solar and wind have been given up-front incentives in recent years, explicitly to help them get started. Now they are doing well, it's possible that incentives can be reduced or eliminated and governments can put their money elsewhere - e.g. schools or hospitals.

At the same time, fossil fuel producers and generators have had "incentives" for decades in the form of tax breaks and guaranteed market share (or monopoly). They have also been massively subsidised in that they have never been asked to pay the community costs of their industries, e.g. the health impacts of pollution, mine restitution, the value of the resources they extract and sell, and (overwhelmingly) the cost of climate change impacts.
Do they admit to these benefits?
:rofl:
Yes, I was kidding.
Are they willing to have them reduced or eliminated?
:alien:

At this point, I would be perfectly happy to see all systemic incentives, benefits, tax breaks, etc, etc reduced to zero. If everyone paid the real costs of their enterprises, and charged what they need to charge, we would see very quickly that fossil fuels are just too expensive to be competitive. Let the market decide! :jedi:

:namaste:
Kim

chownah
Posts: 7308
Joined: Wed Aug 12, 2009 2:19 pm

Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by chownah » Wed Jan 24, 2018 2:11 pm

Since there have been some posts questioning whether adequate storage is possible for wind/solar to power the grid entirely I am bringing this to remind people that there is alot of research going on for storage development and here is one example:
The article is about a new development in fuel cell technology an which also could improve air-metal batteries:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/car-future-m ... 10780.html
chownah

User avatar
Kim OHara
Posts: 4907
Joined: Wed Dec 09, 2009 5:47 am
Location: North Queensland, Australia

Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by Kim OHara » Sat Jan 27, 2018 12:49 am

I wanted to post this when we were talking about pumped hydro but couldn't find it at the time. Here it is -
The race is on for storage solutions that can help provide secure, reliable electricity supply as more renewables enter Australia’s electricity grid.

With the support of the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA), we have identified 22,000 potential pumped hydro energy storage (PHES) sites across all states and territories of Australia. PHES can readily be developed to balance the grid with any amount of solar and wind power, all the way up to 100%, as ageing coal-fired power stations close. ...
:reading: https://arena.gov.au/blog/andrew-blakers/

:twothumbsup:
Kim

chownah
Posts: 7308
Joined: Wed Aug 12, 2009 2:19 pm

Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by chownah » Sat Jan 27, 2018 4:10 am

Pumped hyro is great.....but it does come with the same problem which biofuels come with....namely that people looking for profit and a cheap energy source too often overlook the environmental concerns and too often overlook the concerns of other people wanting to use that resource.

For biomass generation people will use irrigation water,pesticides and chemical fertilizers to use farmland to grow energy while other people want to use the same to grow food.

For pumped hydro the water necessary is sometimes taken from streams which degrades the streams ability to sustain a healthy ecology and it could use up irrigation water.

Pumped hydro is great....but it needs to be used carefully especially if if if there are other alternatives.
chownah

User avatar
Kim OHara
Posts: 4907
Joined: Wed Dec 09, 2009 5:47 am
Location: North Queensland, Australia

Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by Kim OHara » Sat Jan 27, 2018 5:47 am

chownah wrote:
Sat Jan 27, 2018 4:10 am
Pumped hyro is great.....but it does come with the same problem which biofuels come with....namely that people looking for profit and a cheap energy source too often overlook the environmental concerns and too often overlook the concerns of other people wanting to use that resource.

For biomass generation people will use irrigation water,pesticides and chemical fertilizers to use farmland to grow energy while other people want to use the same to grow food.

For pumped hydro the water necessary is sometimes taken from streams which degrades the streams ability to sustain a healthy ecology and it could use up irrigation water.

Pumped hydro is great....but it needs to be used carefully especially if if if there are other alternatives.
chownah
I recognise the concerns, but pumped hydro doesn't remove any great amount of water from the river system, it just recirculates the same water.
This project, not a long way from me, is a good example: http://www.genexpower.com.au/the-kidsto ... 250mw.html
They have water rights but shouldn't need much. They will be replacing evaporative losses and that's about all.

:namaste:
Kim

User avatar
Kim OHara
Posts: 4907
Joined: Wed Dec 09, 2009 5:47 am
Location: North Queensland, Australia

Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by Kim OHara » Sat Jan 27, 2018 5:58 am

Leaving climate mitigation for a moment, important though it is ... this link
https://www.facebook.com/climatecouncil ... 481894537/ should take you to an important video about drought.
I can't find a non-facebook link - sorry.

:namaste:
Kim

chownah
Posts: 7308
Joined: Wed Aug 12, 2009 2:19 pm

Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by chownah » Sat Jan 27, 2018 9:56 am

Kim OHara wrote:
Sat Jan 27, 2018 5:47 am
chownah wrote:
Sat Jan 27, 2018 4:10 am
Pumped hyro is great.....but it does come with the same problem which biofuels come with....namely that people looking for profit and a cheap energy source too often overlook the environmental concerns and too often overlook the concerns of other people wanting to use that resource.

For biomass generation people will use irrigation water,pesticides and chemical fertilizers to use farmland to grow energy while other people want to use the same to grow food.

For pumped hydro the water necessary is sometimes taken from streams which degrades the streams ability to sustain a healthy ecology and it could use up irrigation water.

Pumped hydro is great....but it needs to be used carefully especially if if if there are other alternatives.
chownah
I recognise the concerns, but pumped hydro doesn't remove any great amount of water from the river system, it just recirculates the same water.
This project, not a long way from me, is a good example: http://www.genexpower.com.au/the-kidsto ... 250mw.html
They have water rights but shouldn't need much. They will be replacing evaporative losses and that's about all.

:namaste:
Kim
Your scenario seems ok but people should be aware of the fact that not all scenarios will be so harmless. I think pumped hydro is great.....people do need to be informed of the unintended consequences of each installation on an indivual basis.
chownah

User avatar
Kim OHara
Posts: 4907
Joined: Wed Dec 09, 2009 5:47 am
Location: North Queensland, Australia

Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by Kim OHara » Wed Jan 31, 2018 5:32 am

More on renewables + storage. The tl;dr version is that prices of solar, wind and batteries are all dropping so fast that combined wind-solar-battery installations are now beginning to undercut coal and gas, regardless of subsidies. Just on storage costs, li-ion batteries are now comparable to pumped hydro and in a few years flow batteries may undercut li-ion batteries.

Lots of detail here - http://reneweconomy.com.au/plunging-cos ... oal-83151/

:reading: :reading:
:twothumbsup:
Kim

User avatar
Kim OHara
Posts: 4907
Joined: Wed Dec 09, 2009 5:47 am
Location: North Queensland, Australia

Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by Kim OHara » Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:26 am

How close to sea level do you live, folks?
The three-degree world: the cities that will be drowned by global warming

When UN climate negotiators meet for summit talks this month, there will be a new figure on the table: 3C.

Until now, global efforts such as the Paris climate agreement have tried to limit global warming to 2C above pre-industrial levels. However, with latest projections pointing to an increase of 3.2C by 2100, these goals seem to be slipping out of reach.

“[We] still find ourselves in a situation where we are not doing nearly enough to save hundreds of millions of people from a miserable future,” said Erik Solheim, the UN environment chief, ahead of the upcoming Bonn conference.

One of the biggest resulting threats to cities around the world is sea-level rise, caused by the expansion of water at higher temperatures and melting ice sheets on the north and south poles.

Scientists at the non-profit organisation Climate Central estimate that 275 million people worldwide live in areas that will eventually be flooded at 3C of global warming. ...
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/ng-i ... al-warming

It's not quite too late to avert the worst of this but we have to do more than we've been doing. A lot more.

:namaste:
Kim

User avatar
Kim OHara
Posts: 4907
Joined: Wed Dec 09, 2009 5:47 am
Location: North Queensland, Australia

Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by Kim OHara » Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:55 am

Kim OHara wrote:
Wed Jan 31, 2018 5:32 am
More on renewables + storage. The tl;dr version is that prices of solar, wind and batteries are all dropping so fast that combined wind-solar-battery installations are now beginning to undercut coal and gas, regardless of subsidies. Just on storage costs, li-ion batteries are now comparable to pumped hydro and in a few years flow batteries may undercut li-ion batteries.

Lots of detail here - http://reneweconomy.com.au/plunging-cos ... oal-83151/

:reading: :reading:
:twothumbsup:
Kim
:woohoo:
India has passed a crucial tipping point!
:jumping:
India Coal Power Is About To Crash: 65% Of Existing Coal Costs More Than New Wind And Solar

King Coal’s reign in India is about to come crashing down . Coal supplied 80% of India’s total power mix in 2016-2017, but economics have flipped the country’s energy equation – new renewable energy is now cheaper to build than running most existing coal-fired power plants.

Renewable energy costs have fallen 50% in two years, and are forecast to continue dropping apace. New wind and solar is now 20% cheaper than existing coal-fired generation’s average wholesale power price, and 65% of India’s coal power generation is being sold at higher rates than new renewable energy bids in competitive power auctions.

The tipping point may have been 2016-2017, when renewable energy installations surpassed coal for the first time, adding twice the capacity. Coal plants nationwide already only run around half of the time, nearly every Indian coal plant violates the country’s new air pollution standard, and India’s Central Electricity Authority (CEA) has proposed closing nearly 50 GW of coal capacity by 2027. Retrofitting the plants that remains open will each cost millions to achieve compliance, so running already uneconomic plants will get more expensive as plants run less often and generate less profit. ...
:reading: https://www.forbes.com/sites/energyinno ... 018f2e4c0f

:twothumbsup:
Kim

chownah
Posts: 7308
Joined: Wed Aug 12, 2009 2:19 pm

Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by chownah » Mon Feb 05, 2018 12:08 pm

Kim OHara wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:55 am

:woohoo:
India has passed a crucial tipping point!
:jumping:
India Coal Power Is About To Crash: 65% Of Existing Coal Costs More Than New Wind And Solar
:reading: https://www.forbes.com/sites/energyinno ... 018f2e4c0f

:twothumbsup:
Kim
Yay!....and what is really really great is that cost of wind, solar, and storage are dropping every month and there is no reason to think that this will stop in the forseeable future....in fact there is research in both solar and storage that is likely to provide a quantum leap of lowered costs. It is going to just keep getting better for quite a long time it seems..Yay!
chownah

User avatar
Leeuwenhoek2
Posts: 154
Joined: Thu Jun 01, 2017 10:24 pm

Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by Leeuwenhoek2 » Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:50 pm

Here is one piece of a what I think a realistic look at energy economics should look like. Place this in contrast to this article from Forbes which skirts around a big question: what is the value of electricity from coal and gas plants when renewable sources can't generate it? I don't know what kind of electricity market India has but this article doesn't answer the question:
New wind and solar is now 20% cheaper than existing coal-fired generation’s average wholesale power price, and 65% of India’s coal power generation is being sold at higher rates than new renewable energy bids in competitive power auctions.
-- https://www.forbes.com/sites/energyinno ... b301484c0f
What that tells me is that when renewable are able to produce they can do it less expensively than coal (yea!) but the rest of the time the power has to come from more expensive coal plants. Which is about half the time. If not from coal it will most likely come from gas or nuclear.
Coal supplied 80% of India’s total power mix in 2016-2017
Coal plants nationwide already only run around half of the time, nearly every Indian coal plant violates the country’s new air pollution standard ... Retrofitting the plants that remains open will each cost millions to achieve compliance, so running already uneconomic plants will get more expensive as plants run less often and generate less profit.
The less often a plant is running and selling power the more it costs to run when it can sell it's output.
... while India’s power demand will double over the next decade, its draft National Electricity Plan (NEP) calls for rising demand to be met with 275 gigawatts (GW) total renewable energy capacity by 2027, without requiring new coal plants beyond those already under construction.
How much coal generation is already under construction? 50 GW worth out of a 317 GW peak national power demand.
Last edited by Leeuwenhoek2 on Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:53 am, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
Leeuwenhoek2
Posts: 154
Joined: Thu Jun 01, 2017 10:24 pm

Russia’s 35th Nuclear Power Plant Connected To Grid

Post by Leeuwenhoek2 » Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:01 am

The Rostov-4 nuclear unit near Volgodonsk in southern Russia was connected to the national grid and produced electricity for the first time on 1 February 2018.

The plant took about 7 1/2 years to complete. 6 more plants are under construction.
(China completed it's latest plant in under 5 years. China has one design which it claims can be completed in about 2 years.)
According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Russia has 35 nuclear units in commercial operation and seven, including Rostov-4, under construction. In 2016 nuclear energy’s share of electricity production was 17.14%.

Mr Putin said in a statement on 1 February 2018 that nuclear’s share of production had increased to 19% in 2017 and that Russia is exporting nuclear plants to 12 countries.
-- https://www.nucnet.org/all-the-news/201 ... ed-to-grid

Post Reply

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 23 guests