Global Warming: Recent Data

A place to bring a contemplative / Dharmic perspective and opinions to current events and politics.
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Kim OHara
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Re: Russia’s 35th Nuclear Power Plant Connected To Grid

Post by Kim OHara » Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:12 am

Leeuwenhoek2 wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:01 am
The Rostov-4 nuclear unit near Volgodonsk in southern Russia was connected to the national grid and produced electricity for the first time on 1 February 2018.

The plant took about 7 1/2 years to complete. 6 more plants are under construction.
Given that cancelling them now loses 100% of their investment to date, they will probably complete them in the hope of recouping some of their money - just like the new Indian coal-fired power stations.
But given that the cost of renewables is already lower than the cost of nuclear (and coal) and is dropping fast, the new power plants will probably already be stranded assets by the time they are completed - just like the new Indian coal-fired power stations.
So, to some extent, the issue is one of timing: just when should they pull the plug on each project?
(More on stranded assets here - https://www.marketforces.org.au/info/ke ... ed-assets/ if you're not familiar with the term.)
(China completed it's latest plant in under 5 years. China has one design which it claims can be completed in about 2 years.)
According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Russia has 35 nuclear units in commercial operation and seven, including Rostov-4, under construction. In 2016 nuclear energy’s share of electricity production was 17.14%.

Mr Putin said in a statement on 1 February 2018 that nuclear’s share of production had increased to 19% in 2017 and that Russia is exporting nuclear plants to 12 countries.
-- https://www.nucnet.org/all-the-news/201 ... ed-to-grid
I'm not calling Putin a liar but I would like to know more about that export plan before getting too excited.

:coffee:
Kim

paul
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by paul » Wed Feb 07, 2018 5:55 pm

Solar replaces nuclear in Vietnam:
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Trends ... een?page=1

Vietnam already has a significant reliance on hydro:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... le_sources
Last edited by paul on Thu Feb 08, 2018 5:21 am, edited 2 times in total.

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Leeuwenhoek2
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by Leeuwenhoek2 » Thu Feb 08, 2018 3:24 am

paul wrote:
Wed Feb 07, 2018 5:55 pm
Solar replaces nuclear in Vietnam:
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Trends ... een?page=1
The jist of the story being that:
the country scrambles to make up for the anticipated power shortage due to the recent cancellation of nuclear power plant construction projects.

The government is trying to nurture solar power generation as the country's main source of electrical power. Currently solar power only accounts for 0.01% of total power generation capacity, but the government plans to increase the ratio to 3.3% by 2030 and 20% by 2050.
One mention of wind power. No mention of electrical storage or what their plans are for power during non-peak solar hours.

I have little information about their hydro capabilities so I'm not assuming. The wikipedia source on power plants cited leaves a lot to be desired.
  • Name plate capacity is not actual output on a seasonal basis
  • How much excess actual capability is available and not otherwise committed. Given they anticipate power shortages it's safe to guess it's already close to %100 committed.
  • How much output can be ramped down during the day due to downstream impacts -- people don't like it when you turn off their river during prime daylight hours. I've seen it happen ... weird.
Last edited by Leeuwenhoek2 on Thu Feb 08, 2018 6:06 am, edited 2 times in total.

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Kim OHara
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by Kim OHara » Thu Feb 08, 2018 4:08 am

Leeuwenhoek2 wrote:
Thu Feb 08, 2018 3:24 am
paul wrote:
Wed Feb 07, 2018 5:55 pm
Solar replaces nuclear in Vietnam:
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Trends ... een?page=1
The jist of the story being that:
the country scrambles to make up for the anticipated power shortage due to the recent cancellation of nuclear power plant construction projects.

The government is trying to nurture solar power generation as the country's main source of electrical power. Currently solar power only accounts for 0.01% of total power generation capacity, but the government plans to increase the ratio to 3.3% by 2030 and 20% by 2050.
One mention of wind power. No mention of electrical storage or what their plans are for power during non-peak solar hours.
Next question: why were the nukes cancelled?

:popcorn:
Kim

chownah
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by chownah » Thu Feb 08, 2018 4:46 am

Leeuwenhoek2 wrote:
Thu Feb 08, 2018 3:24 am
No mention of electrical storage or what their plans are for power during non-peak solar hours.
If you read the other link (the one under the link you quote from) you would see that during non-peak solar hours they can use hydro.....hydro usually is very good at being able to be ramped up and down to complement the daily solar power curve. During peak solar hydro can shut down completly allowing reservoir inflows to accumulate in the reservoir to be used later as solar declines....most hydro installations provide excellent energy storage and in the future it may be possible at some installations to add pumped hydro enhancements to even further increase their storage ability.
Here is the link in case you missed it:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_p ... in_Vietnam
chownah

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Kim OHara
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by Kim OHara » Sun Feb 11, 2018 5:21 am

So much going on ... here's a random collection from my FB feed.
renewables-top-coal.png
renewables-top-coal.png (210 KiB) Viewed 665 times
india-aims-50-percent.png
india-aims-50-percent.png (277.21 KiB) Viewed 665 times
white-house-can't.png
white-house-can't.png (354.2 KiB) Viewed 665 times

:coffee:
Kim

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Leeuwenhoek2
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Solar Power: The Case for Tempered Optimism

Post by Leeuwenhoek2 » Sun Feb 11, 2018 6:52 am

It's strange, even shocking, when someone tells me that they believe global warming is an "existential threat" and the major threat to mankind and yet they also strongly oppose nuclear generation of electricity. It's clear that if the US had led the world in building up our nuclear capacity in anything approaching that of France for instance that the atmospheric CO2 would be much lower than they are today. At one time the California based Sierra Club was pro-nuke. But they changed, and not primarily because of of safety or nuclear waste. So we have to ask, who is more responsible for global warming -- big oil or so-called environmentalists who are anti-nuke?

A variation of the weirding of the political climate are "solar triumphalists". These people want to convince us that other emissions reduction technologies—such as advanced nuclear, CO2 capture and sequestration, or geoengineering—can be safely taken off the table. We need to setup a global warming suicide prevention hot line to talk down this self-destructive behavior.

A middle-way view is reflected in this recent piece:


Extracts:
Solar Power: The Case for Tempered Optimism
How the EIA and IEA underestimated industry’s growth, and why we must still be cautious

Why all decarbonization options should be on the table
  • The International Energy Agency has routinely underestimated the growth of solar power in its annual World Energy Outlook.
  • the solar share of electricity in the United States has grown dramatically: from just 0.07% of US electricity as recently as 2010 to 1.3% in 2016.
Reality check: Solar still meets a small fraction of our energy needs, and this isn’t likely to change

Behind critiques of the IEA’s and EIA’s bearish solar projections is quite often the conviction that solar will continue to outperform expectations and perhaps power a large share of the world’s energy needs. Of course, critiques of solar projections are valid; without doubt, reliable forecasts and sound methodology are important so that investors and policymakers can make informed decisions. The EIA’s efforts to refine its projection methodology are commendable in this regard. However, there are three reasons why it is important to keep a tempered view of solar’s potential.

First, truly reliable forecasting, especially more than a few years in advance, is functionally impossible—it would require foreknowledge of shifts in technical, economic, political, and social variables.

Second, there is good reason to doubt any projected exponential growth in solar. There are signs that solar eventually reaches limits in the most advanced markets. In Italy, Greece, Germany, and Spain, the high levels of solar penetration show signs of stalling, not unlimited rapid growth. California is one of the leading regions in the world for high levels of solar at 13% of total electricity, including distributed generation, but the Golden State will struggle to build the grid infrastructure needed to bring this figure much higher.

Finally, and maybe most importantly, solar remains a small portion of total US electricity, and a near miniscule percentage of the total energy system. Even the latest optimistic forecast of the EIA projects solar will reach only 8.2% of US electricity by 2040 and 1.8% of total energy usage.

Yes, it is possible that that the solar share will continue to grow exponentially and provide a majority of American electricity by 2040, as some forecasts suggest. With next generation cells, cheap storage, and long-distance power transmission, solar may continue to grow. And we should do everything possible to continue the research, development, demonstration, and deployment required to further support its growth.

The reality, however, is that solar has not demonstrated that it can carry the lion’s share of decarbonization, and confidently extrapolating exponential growth from a small base decades into the future is unwise given the inherent unreliability of energy forecasts.
-- https://thebreakthrough.org/index.php/v ... d-optimism

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Kim OHara
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Re: Solar Power: The Case for Tempered Optimism

Post by Kim OHara » Sun Feb 11, 2018 8:56 am

Leeuwenhoek2 wrote:
Sun Feb 11, 2018 6:52 am
It's strange, even shocking, when someone tells me that they believe global warming is an "existential threat" and the major threat to mankind and yet they also strongly oppose nuclear generation of electricity.
Who are you talking about that says this? Or are they just :strawman: :strawman: :strawman: that you're setting up so you can knock them down again?

:coffee:
Kim

chownah
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Re: Solar Power: The Case for Tempered Optimism

Post by chownah » Sun Feb 11, 2018 12:15 pm

Leeuwenhoek2 wrote:
Sun Feb 11, 2018 6:52 am
These people want to convince us that other emissions reduction technologies—such as advanced nuclear, CO2 capture and sequestration, or geoengineering—can be safely taken off the table.
Given societies inability to detect the dangers of the warming of the earth in the form of climate change I think that society has not shown the maturity or saavy to be able to administer nuclear, co2 capture and sequestration, or geoengineering in a safe way and so my view is that they can not be safely be left on the table.....society is just not responsible enough to indulge in those technologies in my view.
chownah

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Kim OHara
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by Kim OHara » Wed Feb 14, 2018 9:25 pm

People have been pushing hydrogen as a substitute for petrol and diesel in vehicles, but that never made sense to me. As a storage solution (an alternative to big batteries or pumped hydro) for renewable energy, though, hydrogen has advantages.
The South Australia government has announced funding for what will be Australia’s first renewable-hydrogen electrolyser plant – a 15MW facility to be built near the end of the grid at Port Lincoln on the Eyre Peninsula.

The “green hydrogen” plant – to be built by Hydrogen Utility (H2U), working with Germany’s thyssenkrupp – will include a 10MW hydrogen-fired gas turbine, fuelled by local wind and solar power, and a 5MW hydrogen fuel cell.

Both will supply power to the grid, will support two new solar farms and a local micro-grid, and will also include “distributed ammonia” that can be used as an industrial fertiliser for farmers and aquaculture operators.

The $117.5 million project, which will receive a $4.7 million grant and a $7.5 million loan from South Australia’s Renewable Technology Fund, is being described as a “globally-significant demonstrator project” for the emerging hydrogen energy sector.

It is the second biggest facility of its type, will boast the biggest hydrogen-supported turbine, and will also be the largest supplier of “green ammonia” in the world. ...

H2U chief executive Dr Attilio Pigneri said the hydrogen gas plant and fuel cell will be able to provide balancing services to the national transmission grid, as well as fast frequency response support for new solar plants under development in the Eyre Peninsula.

Pigneri told RenewEconomy the electrolyser itself will provide fast response in the range of milliseconds, while the gas turbine and the fuel cell can put power into the grid.

He sees hydrogen as a viable competitor to battery storage for “end-of-grid” solutions, particularly from its ability to generate additional income streams such as ammonia.

Asked about the skepticism surround hydrogen technologies, Pigneri said there was a “lot of momentum for batteries, but hydrogen technology is quite robust .. it may provide a more effective option than batteries, because you can store as much as you want.”

The Port Lincoln facility will store 10 tonnes of hydrogen, equivalent to 200MWh.

It will support two new solar farms and a 5MW micro-grid to be built by a local tuna operator – many of which have been frustrated by recent blackouts, and the failure of the ageing diesel generators.

It will also supply green ammonia and other chemicals to local farmers and aquaculture operators.
:reading: http://reneweconomy.com.au/s-a-to-host- ... ant-89447/

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Leeuwenhoek2
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Weaver v. Ball, dismissed

Post by Leeuwenhoek2 » Thu Feb 15, 2018 5:01 am

Weaver v. Ball, dismissed.
A climate related defamation lawsuit failed in a Canadian court.
Looks like the decision had almost nothing to do with science.
I review the interesting, mostly legal and public policy, bits at:
viewtopic.php?f=54&t=28785&p=458113#p458113

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Kim OHara
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by Kim OHara » Fri Feb 23, 2018 12:28 pm

Arctic temperatures soar 45 degrees above normal, flooded by extremely mild air on all sides
:jawdrop:
While the Eastern United States simmers in some of its warmest February weather ever recorded, the Arctic is also stewing in temperatures more than 45 degrees above normal. This latest huge temperature spike in the Arctic is another striking indicator of its rapidly transforming climate.

On Monday and Tuesday, the northernmost weather station in the world, Cape Morris Jesup at the northern tip of Greenland, experienced more than 24 hours of temperatures above freezing according to the Danish Meteorological Institute. “How weird is that?” tweeted Robert Rohde, a physicist and lead scientist at Berkeley Earth, a non-profit organization that conducts analyses of the Earth’s temperature. “Well it’s Arctic winter. The sun set in October and won’t be seen again until March. Perpetual night, but still above freezing.”

... The warmth over Alaska occurred as almost one-third of the ice covering the Bering Sea off Alaska’s West Coast vanished in just over a week during the middle of February, InsideClimateNews reported. Brian Brettschneider, a climatologist based in Alaska, posted that the overall sea ice extent on Feb. 20 was the lowest on a record by a long shot. ...

The record-setting temperatures and lack of ice is exactly what scientists have projected over the Arctic for years and it’s fundamentally changing the landscape. ...
:reading: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/cap ... 8774807ee2

:shock:
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chownah
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by chownah » Fri Feb 23, 2018 1:59 pm

Kim ohara,
I share your :shock: .
....but even more :shock: is that the oil companies in russian only see the melting of arctic ice as being the opening of a cheaper way to get their oil to china.... :shock: :shock: :shock: .
chownah

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Kim OHara
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by Kim OHara » Fri Feb 23, 2018 11:39 pm

chownah wrote:
Fri Feb 23, 2018 1:59 pm
Kim ohara,
I share your :shock: .
....but even more :shock: is that the oil companies in russian only see the melting of arctic ice as being the opening of a cheaper way to get their oil to china.... :shock: :shock: :shock: .
chownah
I know. And the US oil companies are seeing it as a chance to drill where it used to be impossible.
:toilet:

On the other hand, the free-falling cost of renewables, and now batteries, means that the economic incentive to exploit hard-to-get oil, gas or (especially) coal has almost gone, so most of it will stay in the ground where it belongs.
I haven't got time to look for one now, but somewhere there must be a chart of extraction cost for each oilfield vs the cost of renewables. :thinking:

:jedi:
Kim

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Leeuwenhoek2
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Understanding Zero-carbon Power technology

Post by Leeuwenhoek2 » Sun Feb 25, 2018 11:06 pm

The US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC https://www.ferc.gov/FERC) recently announced that it was going to let energy storage operate in the wholesale markets as both a buyer and a seller. Why wasn't this allowed before? I don't know but it illustrates the impact that regulation can and does have on the path to zero-carbon energy.

PART 1.
I recommend this article -- and the links in the article -- by a energy expert.
Cheap energy storage, long hailed as renewable energy’s younger cousin that, once of age, would create a dynamic duo strong enough to upend the electricity system as we know it ...

While this development plays to storage’s benefit, the market (at current prices) is still relatively small. For energy storage to make a big play, costs still needs to come down by about half, and the market itself might have to change.

In the U.S., most [electrical] energy storage comes from pumped hydro facilities, but these systems require large amounts of co-located land, elevation and water. Batteries have been (or will be) built in both Texas and Arizona in order to defer expensive transmission line upgrades.
-- https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuarhod ... ill-needed
Note 1: The vast majority %90 + of electrical energy storage worldwide comes from pumped hydro. Pump hydro has been in operation about as long as conventional hydro electric. BUT it seems the public knows little about it. Why?
Here's a opening clue: The world may remember the mass evacuation in Oroville California because of problems with Oroville Dam's overflow Spillway. Oroville dam has a pumped hydro facility but finding information about it on the dam's official website is a challenge.
Reason 1: It's old technology that doesn't have the backing of marketing powers such as Telsa.
Reason 2: It's a form of hydro electric power so I think it has a mixed reputation among many environmentalists and environmental special interests.

Note 2: Transmission Line Upgrades
Wind power, hydro electric and geothermal power usually has to be transmitted good distances. Plans for these kinds of renewable power systems usually have to include large scale transmission line improvements and/or new major power lines.


PART 2 -- Where does Electrical Power Come From?
This graph from the article shows power generated in the US in Terawatt hours (1 TWh = one million MWh = 1,000,000 MWh) in a year.
  • This is power produced I believe, not "name plate" capacity. Capacity usually means maximum output or output under ideal conditions. Watt hours (Wh) as used here is a measure of electricity actually generated and is less, often much less, than name-plate/rated capacity.
  • I'd like to verify that the solar power numbers shown include estimates of power generated on home rooftops.
Image
A couple of numbers to note:
  • Wind produces almost 2x that of it's cousins (Solar + Geothermal + Biomass + Other)
  • Nuclear, the 3rd biggest producer on the list, generates more than all the renewables combined (Hydro + Wind + Solar + Geothermal + Biomass + Other)
  • Natural Gas is the #1 producer -- one reason why US CO2 emissions are relatively low.

----------------------------------
EXPLAINER: Pumped Hydro Storage
In a pumped storage facility, water is pumped during off-peak demand periods from a reservoir at a lower elevation for storage in a reservoir at a higher elevation. Electricity is then generated during peak demand periods by releasing the pumped water from the higher reservoir and allowing it to flow downhill through the hydraulic turbine(s) connected to generators. During the off-peak pumping cycle, the pumped storage facility is a consumer of electricity. In fact, the amount of electricity required to pump the water uphill is greater than the amount of electricity that is generated when the water is released during peak demand periods. Pumped storage facilities, however, can be economical because they consume low-cost off-peak electricity and generate high-value on-peak electricity.

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