Global Warming: Recent Data

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chownah
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by chownah » Mon Aug 22, 2016 3:54 am

Kim OHara wrote:
Ron-The-Elder wrote:Hi, Rowboat:

Thanks for the graph. However, it is mislabeled. Should read: "from Jan 1880 to Jul 2016.
Poorly labelled rather than mislabelled, Ron. The text isn't the title of the graph (although it looks like it is) but the label on the vertical scale.
What it is saying is that the scale is the "Temperature Anomaly, i.e. the difference from the 1980-2015 annual average," i.e., zero on that scale is the annual mean global temperature.
Since they seem to have data all the way back to 1880 why do you think they did not use the 1880-2015 annual average? It seems that they could have computed that average and used it. The only reason I can think of is that they wanted their baseline to be as precise as possible and with the advances in global sensing it is clear that the annual average for 1980 to 2015 would be much more precise because of more accurate measurements and more data points.
chownah

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Kim OHara
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by Kim OHara » Mon Aug 22, 2016 9:53 am

chownah wrote:
Kim OHara wrote:
Ron-The-Elder wrote:Hi, Rowboat:

Thanks for the graph. However, it is mislabeled. Should read: "from Jan 1880 to Jul 2016.
Poorly labelled rather than mislabelled, Ron. The text isn't the title of the graph (although it looks like it is) but the label on the vertical scale.
What it is saying is that the scale is the "Temperature Anomaly, i.e. the difference from the 1980-2015 annual average," i.e., zero on that scale is the annual mean global temperature.
Since they seem to have data all the way back to 1880 why do you think they did not use the 1880-2015 annual average? It seems that they could have computed that average and used it. The only reason I can think of is that they wanted their baseline to be as precise as possible and with the advances in global sensing it is clear that the annual average for 1980 to 2015 would be much more precise because of more accurate measurements and more data points.
chownah
You're right, chownah. The baseline has been picked because it's a long enough enough span to smooth out the wobbles but recent enough to have the best quality data. Sometimes I've seen baselines like 1950 - 1980, coinciding with the beginning of good global data coverage.
The only downside with either of these is that the choice hides the true extent of the warming since pre-industrial times, since temperatures were already rising significantly by 1950, let alone 1980.

:namaste:
Kim

P.S. Here's the IPCC's reasoning:
There may be climatological reasons to favour earlier baseline periods over later ones (IPCC, 1994). For example, later periods such as 1961 to 1990 are likely to have larger anthropogenic trends embedded in the climate data, especially the effects of sulphate aerosols over regions such as Europe and eastern USA (Karl et al., 1996). In this regard, the �ideal� baseline period would be in the 19th century when anthropogenic effects on global climate were negligible. Most impact assessments, however, seek to determine the effect of climate change with respect to �the present�, and therefore recent baseline periods such as 1961 to 1990 are usually favoured. A further attraction of using 1961 to 1990 is that observational climate data coverage and availability are generally better for this period compared to earlier ones.
https://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/483.htm
:reading:
Last edited by Kim OHara on Mon Aug 22, 2016 10:29 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Kim OHara
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by Kim OHara » Mon Aug 22, 2016 9:56 am

Here's a totally unpredicted - and somewhat morbid - effect of climate change:
Even The Dead Have Been Displaced By Louisiana Flooding

As if the site of floodwaters ripping through communities in southern Louisiana wasn’t eerie enough, the high waters have begun lifting graves from their final resting places.
The flood appears to have dislodged the above-ground grave coverings at many of the region’s cemeteries, sending the enclosed caskets floating. ...
http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/entry/ ... dc73262ee2

:thinking:
Kim

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robertk
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by robertk » Mon Aug 22, 2016 10:42 am

Global warming caused the flooding in Lousiana. It caused droughts in Africa and the war in Syria and possibly global terrorism, according to some studies.

Not to mention earthquakes , volcanic erutions and tsunamis.
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/climate-change ... ake-305808

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Kim OHara
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by Kim OHara » Mon Aug 22, 2016 11:18 am

robertk wrote:Global warming caused the flooding in Lousiana. It caused droughts in Africa and the war in Syria and possibly global terrorism, according to some studies.

Not to mention earthquakes , volcanic erutions and tsunamis.
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/climate-change ... ake-305808
Thanks, Robert. I had wondered about earthquakes, for just the reasons given here, but I hadn't seen any expert opinion about the effect on them.

:namaste:
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by Kim OHara » Wed Aug 24, 2016 5:50 am

Some good nes for California, and some potentially even better news:
California Climate Policies a $48 Billion Boon for State’s Economy, Analysis Finds

A new analysis by a non-partisan business group finds that California’s climate policies have been a boon for the state’s economy.

Assembly Bill 32, also known as AB 32 or the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006, requires California to reduce climate-cooking greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 — which meant cutting emissions about 25 percent from where they were at in 2006, when AB 32 was passed by the California State Legislature and signed into law by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.

According to the analysis from Environmental Entrepreneurs (E2) analysis, AB 32 and related climate policies have pumped some $48 billion into the state economy over the past decade while helping create about 500,000 jobs.

The emissions targets established by AB 32 and the programs that were created to achieve them have funded solar, wind and energy efficiency projects in communities across California and given clean energy investors and companies confidence in the state’s energy market. The upshot, E2 found, is that every single one of the state’s 80 Assembly districts have benefitted from the Golden State’s climate leadership over the past decade.

“It’s clear that AB 32 and related policies are already paying off big time for California’s economy,” E2 executive director Bob Keefe wrote in a blog post. ...
http://www.desmogblog.com/2016/08/18/ca ... -s-economy

:twothumbsup:
Kim

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rowboat
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by rowboat » Sat Aug 27, 2016 11:05 pm

Just 90 companies are to blame for most climate change, this 'carbon accountant' says
Last month, geographer Richard Heede received a subpoena from Representative Lamar Smith (R-TX), chairman of the House of Representatives Committee on Science, Space, and Technology. Smith, a climate change doubter, became concerned when the attorneys general of several states launched investigations into whether ExxonMobil had committed fraud by sowing doubts about climate change even as its own scientists knew it was taking place. The congressman suspected a conspiracy between the attorneys general and environmental advocates, and he wanted to see all the communications among them. Predictably, his targets included advocacy organizations such as Greenpeace, 350.org, and the Union of Concerned Scientists. They also included Heede, who works on his own aboard a rented houseboat on San Francisco Bay in California.

Heede is less well known than his fellow recipients, but his work is no less threatening to the fossil fuel industry. Heede (pronounced "Heedie") has compiled a massive database quantifying who has been responsible for taking carbon out of the ground and putting it into the atmosphere. Working alone, with uncertain funding, he spent years piecing together the annual production of every major fossil fuel company since the Industrial Revolution and converting it to carbon emissions.

Heede's research shows that nearly two-thirds of anthropogenic carbon emissions originated in just 90 companies and government-run industries. Among them, the top eight companies -- ranked according to annual and cumulative emissions below -- account for 20 percent of world carbon emissions from fossil fuels and cement production since the Industrial Revolution.

Just 90 companies are to blame for most climate change, this 'carbon accountant' says
Rain soddens what is covered up,
It does not sodden what is open.
Therefore uncover what is covered
That the rain will not sodden it.
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Kim OHara
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by Kim OHara » Sun Aug 28, 2016 7:23 am

Thanks, Rowboat. It's an interesting article for several reasons, although I've got to say the headline doesn't count as one of them: wealth is so concentrated these days that you could safely say "Just 90 companies are to blame for most X" and replace X with "shoe production" or "pesticides" or "softdrink production" or ... whatever.
But it's good to be able to focus our efforts against known targets.
One way we're doing it here in Oz - and I hope everyone in the US is doing the same - is starving the companies of investment funding through campaigns like Market Forces https://www.marketforces.org.au/banks-fail-climate-test and SuperSwitch http://superswitch.org.au.

:namaste:
Kim

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Ron-The-Elder
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by Ron-The-Elder » Sun Aug 28, 2016 6:38 pm

Kim: " "Just 90 companies are to blame for most X"".....
True, Kim. However I can see where petrochemical companies hurt / hinder measures to reduce global warming in several ways that others do not:

1. Removing fossil fuels that otherwise would be sequestered.
2. Releasing methane during the process of extraction.
3. Releasing methane during the process of refinement.
4. Producing CO2 during extraction by using pumps driven by internal combustion engines.
5. Producing CO2 during transport of fossil fuels as vehicles of all sorts use fossil fuels to drive their transport engines.
6. Producing CO2 during end use of fossil fuels.
7. Producing CO2 during the manufacture of the vehicles which will use the fossil fuels to power them.
8. Producing CO2 during the transport of the vehicles from manufacture to point of sale.

Big CO2 footprint. I am sure I missed other processes in design, production and marketing, which also produce CO2.

I really like the idea of charging buyers for the size of the CO2 footprint from womb to scrap yard of all vehicles. This would do two things:

I. Make buyers aware of the carbon footprint of the vehicles, which they are buying.
II. Provide a cost incentive to buy more expensive, but less environment damaging vehicles.

There also would be an added incentive to designers, and manufacturers to invest in research and development of low carbon footprint products.
What Makes an Elder? :
A head of gray hairs doesn't mean one's an elder. Advanced in years, one's called an old fool.
But one in whom there is truth, restraint, rectitude, gentleness,self-control, he's called an elder, his impurities disgorged, enlightened.
-Dhammpada, 19, translated by Thanissaro Bhikkhu.

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Kim OHara
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by Kim OHara » Tue Aug 30, 2016 2:34 am

Ron-The-Elder wrote:
Kim: " "Just 90 companies are to blame for most X"".....
True, Kim. However I can see where petrochemical companies hurt / hinder measures to reduce global warming in several ways that others do not:

1. Removing fossil fuels that otherwise would be sequestered.
2. Releasing methane during the process of extraction.
3. Releasing methane during the process of refinement.
4. Producing CO2 during extraction by using pumps driven by internal combustion engines.
5. Producing CO2 during transport of fossil fuels as vehicles of all sorts use fossil fuels to drive their transport engines.
6. Producing CO2 during end use of fossil fuels.
7. Producing CO2 during the manufacture of the vehicles which will use the fossil fuels to power them.
8. Producing CO2 during the transport of the vehicles from manufacture to point of sale.

Big CO2 footprint. I am sure I missed other processes in design, production and marketing, which also produce CO2.
I think you will find Heede looked at (nearly) all of these. He seems to be an exceptionally thorough person, almost to the point of being obsessive.
I really like the idea of charging buyers for the size of the CO2 footprint from womb to scrap yard of all vehicles. This would do two things:

I. Make buyers aware of the carbon footprint of the vehicles, which they are buying.
II. Provide a cost incentive to buy more expensive, but less environment damaging vehicles.

There also would be an added incentive to designers, and manufacturers to invest in research and development of low carbon footprint products.
Absolutely! And the simple-to-administer way of doing it is a carbon tax. Buyers automatically pay it at the point of purchase, because it's built into the price.

:namaste:
Kim

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Kim OHara
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by Kim OHara » Tue Aug 30, 2016 2:37 am

:coffee:
Climate change is going to halve the area suitable for coffee production and impact the livelihoods of more than 120 million of the world’s poorest people who rely on the coffee economy, according to a new report by the Climate Institute ...
Scientists think Nicaragua could lose the majority of its coffee-growing areas by 2050, and in Tanzania, coffee yields were projected to reach “critically low levels” by 2060.
By 2080, scientists think wild coffee, which is important for genetic diversity of farmed coffee, could be extinct.
For consumers of coffee, all of this will impact flavour, aroma and price, the report said.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... 20m-people

:o

Kim

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Ron-The-Elder
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by Ron-The-Elder » Wed Aug 31, 2016 3:01 pm

Kim: "Absolutely! And the simple-to-administer way of doing it is a carbon tax. Buyers automatically pay it at the point of purchase, because it's built into the price."
Would like to see this information placed on the bill of sale posted on the window of vehicles in the show rooms much like they show fuel consumption and cost of power steering vs. straight stick, power windows vs roll down (not that this option exists anymore.) :tongue:
What Makes an Elder? :
A head of gray hairs doesn't mean one's an elder. Advanced in years, one's called an old fool.
But one in whom there is truth, restraint, rectitude, gentleness,self-control, he's called an elder, his impurities disgorged, enlightened.
-Dhammpada, 19, translated by Thanissaro Bhikkhu.

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Kim OHara
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by Kim OHara » Thu Sep 08, 2016 11:28 pm

It's official:
Louisiana Floods Directly Linked to Climate Change

Climate change played a heavy role in the nightmarish storm that brought a three-day deluge to coastal Louisiana last month, triggering floods that killed 13 and left thousands more homeless, research released Wednesday showed.

The unprecedented 1 to 2 feet of rain that fell over parts of Baton Rouge and nearby communities over several days in the middle of August stunned experts. While such deluges are rare, the new research indicated that the likelihood the region will experience them may have doubled during the past century. ...
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/loui ... ange-20671

:coffee:
Kim

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Kim OHara
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by Kim OHara » Sun Sep 11, 2016 12:57 am

This one is a must-read, for its good overview of the size of the challenge and its paradigm-shifting solution.

https://www.theguardian.com/global-deve ... r-our-feet
Studies suggest that regenerating soil by turning our backs on industrial farming holds the key to tackling climate change
...but it's not just about soil - not even mainly about soil.

:namaste:
Kim

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Ron-The-Elder
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Post by Ron-The-Elder » Mon Sep 12, 2016 5:05 pm

Thanks for the article, Kim. Glad to read that our family has been following the correct path all along. Also a great incentive to buy local farmers' produce. :woohoo:
What Makes an Elder? :
A head of gray hairs doesn't mean one's an elder. Advanced in years, one's called an old fool.
But one in whom there is truth, restraint, rectitude, gentleness,self-control, he's called an elder, his impurities disgorged, enlightened.
-Dhammpada, 19, translated by Thanissaro Bhikkhu.

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