Global Warming: Recent Data

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Kim OHara
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

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Ron-The-Elder
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

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Kim OHara » Wed Dec 09, 2015 1:33 am

A good explanation of El Nino and climate change. As we're coming to expect, the latter amplifies the former.
This is and example of a ganged physical relationship, where a cause creates an effect, which itself becomes a cause which affects its own cause. Another name is "negative feedback":

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negative_feedback" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Compare this to "positive feedback", which results in ever more chaos, what engineers call a degenerative loop:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Positive_feedback" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

...where turbulence creates only more turbulence such as when a microphone is placed in front of a speaker and we experience a high pitched, runaway, and ever louder whistling sound.
Climate "forcings" may push a climate system in the direction of warming or cooling,[49] for example, increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases cause warming at the surface. Forcings are external to the climate system and feedbacks are internal processes of the system. Some feedback mechanisms act in relative isolation to the rest of the climate system while others are tightly coupled.[50] Forcings, feedbacks and the dynamics of the climate system determine how much and how fast the climate changes. The main positive feedback in global warming is the tendency of warming to increase the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere, which in turn leads to further warming.[51] The main negative feedback comes from the Stefan–Boltzmann law, the amount of heat radiated from the Earth into space is proportional to the fourth power of the temperature of Earth's surface and atmosphere.
Other examples of positive feedback subsystems in climatology include:
A warmer atmosphere will melt ice and this changes the albedo which further warms the atmosphere.
Methane hydrates can be unstable so that a warming ocean could release more methane, which is also a greenhouse gas.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report states that "Anthropogenic warming could lead to some effects that are abrupt or irreversible, depending upon the rate and magnitude of the climate change."[52]
What Makes an Elder? :
A head of gray hairs doesn't mean one's an elder. Advanced in years, one's called an old fool.
But one in whom there is truth, restraint, rectitude, gentleness,self-control, he's called an elder, his impurities disgorged, enlightened.
-Dhammpada, 19, translated by Thanissaro Bhikkhu.

Digity
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

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I'm skeptical that these summits will result in significant change. I hope I'm wrong.

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Kim OHara
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

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The Paris agreement won't solve our problems but it does set up targets and standards against which actions can be measured.
The responses, a few days out, from the major Green groups and the climate scientists have generally been very positive but not without warnings that there is lots more to be done.
Hansen is one of the doomiest: http://www.independent.co.uk/environmen ... 71171.html
350.org is more typical: http://350.org/press-release/cop21-reaction/
One from the RSGS (no, I didn't know what the acronym stood for, either :tongue: ): http://rsgs.org/cop21-xmas-turkey-or-festive-feast/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
I want to view the Paris Agreement as a positive step, if for no other reason than almost every nation has signed a commitment to acknowledge the problem and to aim to address it. However, it does feel weak. It has taken the best part of three decades to get to this point, and what we really see in the Paris Agreement is a voluntary agreement with a lot of good intentions. And we all know where good intentions lead if they are not followed through.
For me, Professor Kevin Anderson of the UK Tyndall Centre summed it up beautifully in the New Scientist: “The bureaucrats have a better grasp of what is politically possible, and the protesters of what is physically necessary. What do you want to bet on, science or politics?”
And here is a good collection of other responses from academics around the western world: https://theconversation.com/au/topics/p ... ate-summit

:namaste:
Kim

Digity
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

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We need to put an end to mass consumerism and greed to restore the health of this planet, but I just don't see that happening. Too many people on this planet and none of them want to give up their comforts, which most believe they are entitled to. I feel like things have to get bad before there's a shift in mentality and people finally realize they need to change their ways, but by then it might be too late and we'll have caused too much damage.

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Kim OHara
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

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Digity wrote:We need to put an end to mass consumerism and greed to restore the health of this planet, but I just don't see that happening. Too many people on this planet and none of them want to give up their comforts, which most believe they are entitled to. I feel like things have to get bad before there's a shift in mentality and people finally realize they need to change their ways, but by then it might be too late and we'll have caused too much damage.
I'm putting my faith in extreme weather events to wake them up sooner than the underlying climate change would do by itself.
We know weather is not climate, but science (at least) also knows that global warming increases the likelihood of extreme weather - droughts (hello, California), floods (hello, UK; hello Brisbane), cold snaps (hello, NY), heatwaves (hello, Adelaide http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-12-14/s ... ll/7025580; hello Athens), tornados (hello, Sydney http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weath ... lohb3.html ... you name it, it's happening. And if you get three once-in-a-hundred-years floods in five years, surely you start to wonder, and to act. :thinking:

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samseva
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

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Kim OHara wrote:I'm putting my faith in extreme weather events to wake them up sooner than the underlying climate change would do by itself.
We know weather is not climate, but science (at least) also knows that global warming increases the likelihood of extreme weather - droughts (hello, California), floods (hello, UK; hello Brisbane), cold snaps (hello, NY), heatwaves (hello, Adelaide http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-12-14/s ... ll/7025580; hello Athens), tornados (hello, Sydney http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weath ... lohb3.html ... you name it, it's happening. And if you get three once-in-a-hundred-years floods in five years, surely you start to wonder, and to act. :thinking:
Don't forget the flooding of a large portion of the state of Florida and other cities in 10 or so years.

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Kim OHara
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

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samseva wrote:
Kim OHara wrote:I'm putting my faith in extreme weather events to wake them up sooner than the underlying climate change would do by itself.
We know weather is not climate, but science (at least) also knows that global warming increases the likelihood of extreme weather - droughts (hello, California), floods (hello, UK; hello Brisbane), cold snaps (hello, NY), heatwaves (hello, Adelaide http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-12-14/s ... ll/7025580; hello Athens), tornados (hello, Sydney http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weath ... lohb3.html ... you name it, it's happening. And if you get three once-in-a-hundred-years floods in five years, surely you start to wonder, and to act. :thinking:
Don't forget the flooding of a large portion of the state of Florida and other cities in 10 or so years.
Yep, it all helps. :smile:
:thinking:
It's just a pity that it takes such forceful warnings to make us act.

:namaste:
Kim

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Kim OHara
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

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A post-Paris reality check.

Magical thinking about progress won’t save planet Earth
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... anet-earth
... progress and growth provide an alibi for excess. Indeed, they turn excess into a virtue, redescribing our overblown appetites as the engine of greater future prosperity. Growth is the philosopher’s stone that offers to turn all things into gold. But, like all belief in magic it points to a fall...
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

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Latest edition of "Renewable Energy World.com ":

http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/index.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

What I like about this energy online magazine is that it covers all aspects of the clean energy topic. :reading: Suggest everyone, who has an interest subscribe.

Kim: "Notice the article regarding the war against wind ending in Australia."

http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/art ... id=1262887" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
What Makes an Elder? :
A head of gray hairs doesn't mean one's an elder. Advanced in years, one's called an old fool.
But one in whom there is truth, restraint, rectitude, gentleness,self-control, he's called an elder, his impurities disgorged, enlightened.
-Dhammpada, 19, translated by Thanissaro Bhikkhu.

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Kim OHara
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

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Thanks, Ron.
Our political scene improved dramatically with the removal of Abbott, who was unbelievably awful in so many ways :rolleye: but the party is still hostage to the mining and fossil-fuel industries and signals are mixed. On the one hand, wind is back; on the other, they have issued environmental approvals for the monstrous Galilee Basin coal mine and even talked about giving the operators money to help set up the port it needs :toilet: http://nqcc.org.au/2015/keeping-up-with-abbot-point/

But anyone is better than Abbott so 2016 will be better than 2015 here. :twothumbsup:
I hope it is for you, too.

:namaste:
Kim

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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

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Mainstream Scientists Cashing In On Climate Wagers
http://science.slashdot.org/story/16/01 ... ate-wagers" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Climate contrarians have long predicted imminent global cooling. A few have been willing to place wagers that mainstream scientists have been quick to accept. Often acceptance of the bet is followed by immediate retraction, as was the case when "Bastardi's Wager" was accepted by Joseph Romm or when Maurice Newman's $10,000 bet was accepted by physicist Brian Schmidt. In some cases, bets have been formalized and the terms of many of those wagers are coming to a close. It may not be surprising to learn that those who put their money on the side of mainstream science are the ones who are cashing in.

Reuters reports that British climate expert Chris Hope just won a 2,000 pound sterling ($2,830) wager made five years ago against two members of the Global Warming Policy Foundation, who had bet Hope that the Earth would be cooling by now. They also highlight a $10,000 bet made in 2005 between British climate modeler James Annan and two Russian solar physicists. The solar physicists had counted on waning solar output to halt warming. Annan will win if average global temperatures from 2013-17 are warmer than 2003-07. "Things are looking good for my bet," Annan said.

Keith Pickering reports on a series of three bets between Brian Schmidt and climate contrarian David Evans, who also believed that diminishing solar output would dominate the temperatures of the last decade and beyond. The wagers pay out in 2019, 2024, and 2029. Pickering concludes, "What Evans apparently doesn't realize is that because of the thermal inertia of the oceans, within narrow bounds we can already predict what global temperatures will be in 2019, 2024, and 2029. And David Evans is going to lose his shirt."
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Kim OHara
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

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:twothumbsup:

Thanks, Chownah.
Of course, it would actually be better for all of us if the mainstream scientists were losing their bets, but it's good to see the contrarians getting what they deserve.

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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

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http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/21/scien ... .html?_r=0" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

More data.
Sotthī hontu nirantaraṃ - May you forever be well.

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Kim OHara
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

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May interest the Americans around here ...
http://www.wired.com/2015/01/senators-d ... te-change/
Here Are All the Senators Who Do and Don’t Believe in Human-Caused Climate Change

UNITED STATES SENATORS stood up for what they believed in today—and it wasn’t pretty. During a debate over construction of the Keystone XL pipeline, intended to carry oil from Canada to the United States, the Senate voted on an amendment—just for show, really—on whether climate change “is real and not a hoax.” Easy question—everyone said yes, it’s real. (Well, not everyone. Good job, Senator Roger Wicker, Republican from Mississippi1. You do not believe science.) But then Brian Schatz, Democrat from Hawaii, decided to push the issue. He introduced another amendment adding that human activity was a significant contributor to the aforementioned climate change. And the Senate voted again.

The results? Ahem. Fifty US senators affirmed that they indeed do believe that the activities of human beings contribute to climate change. OK. But 49 senators—fully half the upper house that represents our grand republic—do not. So, hey, you go out there and burn whatever carbon you want to? Not sure what to make of that. But we thought you might want to know just which representatives have absolved you of your responsibility to the planet. So here’s a list ...
And, quite separately ...
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:rolleye:
Kim

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